“It is fatal to enter a war without the will to win it.”
– General Douglas MacArthur
This was an epic series and it was won by the superior team.
3-1 in Miami.
6-2 for the season against Miami.
+3.375 thru Eight Games.
Dallas was the better team. They were more talented. They played harder. When Miami had leads in the fourth they took their Milkshakes.
Let’s see, we ended the Playoffs at 12-3 for Picks or an 80% average. More on this in a future post.
Let’s dig deep for this series. First the totals:
Dwayne Wade was twice as good as anybody else in this series. Lebron was good but he was good early. Jason Kidd lead a team effort for Dallas in winning the title. Kidd,Chandler,Terry,Stevenson, Dirk and Marion all got a half a win or better. Miami went three deep and that combined with an excruciatingly bad Chris Bosh performance took them out of contention.
For Miami, everyone but Dwayne Wade played that series like they were scared of the moment. Everyone in Dallas answered the call at one time or another.
Oh and before I forget:
Puerto Rico for the win. Dale Boricua!
Let’s get all the numbers for the playoffs up as well.
Miami had the best two players in the playoffs in Lebron and Wade in Wins Produced. Too bad Dallas had 5 of the top 15.
Boxscore Explanations in gray:
I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.
- Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
- Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
- Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
- Possesion and Play stats:
- Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
- Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
- All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
- Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
- True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
- Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
- Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
- Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
- Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
- OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
- Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
- DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
- Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
- Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
- The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.
Parking Lot items :
- Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
- Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)
Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).
I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.
The raw data is here as a google doc (updated 6/6/11)
The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).
Heat-Mavs Game 6
The Dallas Guards continued their resurgence from Game 5 and took the Heat out. Kidd, Terry, Barea and Stevenson killed out there. Per minute they were better than every single Miami player. Dirk had a horrible night (particularly in the first half where he made only one bucket) and this was the only thing that kept this game from becoming a rout.
As for the Heat, a few points:
- You’re not winning the NBA title if Bosh is your best big man. Pat Riley knows this. Pat Riley will fix this. Pat Riley probably called Tyson Chandler’s agent after the final whistle blew (what’s the line on Miami in 2012 again?).
- Wade injured hip was probably a much bigger deal than anyone thought. Sadly, injuries are a feature with Wade.
- Lebron needs a post game. Every team will cover him as a PG with little men until he develops one. Pat Riley probably already booked some time with Hakeem for him.
- Final Lebron numbers vs the Mavs:
|Lebron James vs Mavericks in 2010-2011|
|Date||Player||Team||Opp||Wins per 48 Minutes|
|Finals Game 1||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.490|
|Finals Game 2||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.276|
|Finals Game 3||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.116|
|Finals Game 4||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.027|
|Finals Game 5||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.037|
|Finals Game 6||LeBron James||MIA||DAL||0.019|
|Avg Reg Season||-0.007|
Regression to the mean was not Lebron’s friend.
Let’s end with a hearty congrats to the Mavs.