“It is fatal to enter a war without the will to win it.”
– General Douglas MacArthur
This was an epic series and it was won by the superior team.
3-1 in Miami.
6-2 for the season against Miami.
+3.375 thru Eight Games.
Dallas was the better team. They were more talented. They played harder. When Miami had leads in the fourth they took their Milkshakes.
Let’s see, we ended the Playoffs at 12-3 for Picks or an 80% average. More on this in a future post.
Let’s dig deep for this series. First the totals:
Dwayne Wade was twice as good as anybody else in this series. Lebron was good but he was good early. Jason Kidd lead a team effort for Dallas in winning the title. Kidd,Chandler,Terry,Stevenson, Dirk and Marion all got a half a win or better. Miami went three deep and that combined with an excruciatingly bad Chris Bosh performance took them out of contention.
For Miami, everyone but Dwayne Wade played that series like they were scared of the moment. Everyone in Dallas answered the call at one time or another.
Oh and before I forget:
Lebron on JJ. Actually happened. Have it on tape.
Puerto Rico for the win. Dale Boricua!
Let’s get all the numbers for the playoffs up as well.
Miami had the best two players in the playoffs in Lebron and Wade in Wins Produced. Too bad Dallas had 5 of the top 15.
Boxscore Explanations in gray:
I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.
It contains:
- Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
- Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
- Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
- Possesion and Play stats:
- Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
- Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
- All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
- Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
- True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
- Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
- Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
- Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
- Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
- OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
- Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
- DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
- Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
- Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
- The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.
Parking Lot items :
- Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
- Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)
Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).
I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.
The raw data is here as a google doc (updated 6/6/11)
The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).
Heat-Mavs Game 6
The Dallas Guards continued their resurgence from Game 5 and took the Heat out. Kidd, Terry, Barea and Stevenson killed out there. Per minute they were better than every single Miami player. Dirk had a horrible night (particularly in the first half where he made only one bucket) and this was the only thing that kept this game from becoming a rout.
As for the Heat, a few points:
- You’re not winning the NBA title if Bosh is your best big man. Pat Riley knows this. Pat Riley will fix this. Pat Riley probably called Tyson Chandler’s agent after the final whistle blew (what’s the line on Miami in 2012 again?).
- Wade injured hip was probably a much bigger deal than anyone thought. Sadly, injuries are a feature with Wade.
- Lebron needs a post game. Every team will cover him as a PG with little men until he develops one. Pat Riley probably already booked some time with Hakeem for him.
- Final Lebron numbers vs the Mavs:
| Lebron James vs Mavericks in 2010-2011 | ||||
| Date | Player | Team | Opp | Wins per 48 Minutes |
| 11/27/2010 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | -0.122 |
| 12/20/2010 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.108 |
| Finals Game 1 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.490 |
| Finals Game 2 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.276 |
| Finals Game 3 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.116 |
| Finals Game 4 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.027 |
| Finals Game 5 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.037 |
| Finals Game 6 | LeBron James | MIA | DAL | 0.019 |
| Avg Reg Season | -0.007 | |||
| Avg Finals | 0.161 | |||
| Avg 2010-2011 | 0.119 | |||
Regression to the mean was not Lebron’s friend.
Let’s end with a hearty congrats to the Mavs.
Arturo's Silly Little Stats v2.0 
EntityAbyss
06/13/2011
Although House played well, I’m putting this loss on Eric Spoelstra’s line-up change which came out of nowhere. Miami was playin well enough to win the series. Frustrating, but it is what it is.
Rex
06/13/2011
Has anyone seen it explained why House played so much and Miller didn’t? Other than coaching malpractice? House’s WP is pretty good, but seems to be understating his defensive suckitude. Every Dallas player he guarded seemed to lick his chops before driving around him or pulling up for an open shot.
marparker
06/13/2011
I agree that the lineup change was strange. However, Wade and Lebron were both way below average. Miller was even worse in his minutes. Dallas took their heart in game 2. Congrats to Arturo for picking this series correctly.
Now, can we all admit that this has to be one of the worst teams to ever win the championship? Down there with the Pistons in 04.
Jax
06/13/2011
The Mavs’ adjusted differential in the playoffs was +10.4, among the champions of the 2000s ranking only behind the ’09 Lakers (+11.4) and the ’01 Lakers (+19.4…!). Only a bitter Miami fan would devalue the Mavs as a worthy championship team.
Then again, there aren’t that many of you – apparently Cuban and the Mavs rolled into a Miami nightclub, Larry O’Brien trophy with them, to the applause of everyone there.
OJ
06/13/2011
Worst teams to ever win the championship?!
No.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1758
arturogalletti
06/13/2011
Mar,
I love you but you’re crazy. This team features 3 WP all timers in Dirk, Kidd and Marion. Chandler could very well be number 4. They were the best team in the second half and the playoffs in a loaded,loaded,LOADED year. I’m also on record as saying that they would have been the 1 seed in the league if Dirk is healthy the whole year.
I really don’t expect them to repeat because of age but these guys were good and took some scalps.
BogieBear
06/13/2011
Portland, LA, OKC, and MIami — a real murder’s row — and they lost 5 games. 5. Wow, wow. That’s one of the better playoff runs, and one of the better champions, of all time. If J-Kidd spends the summer in a pure oxygen bubble, or whatever it is he does, they could win it again.
Guy
06/13/2011
Arturo: I’m surprised you didn’t note that the Mavericks were a poor rebounding team in the playoffs: .251 oreb% and .717 dreb% (both below average). And yet somehow they managed to win it all. For that matter, they were a below-average rebounding team during the regular season as well. It seems worth examining how a team could become world champions while neglecting such an (allegedly) important part of the game. Has any team with a below-average shooting efficiency has become world champions? Or any team that allowed opponents an above-average efficiency? That must be quite rare.
arturogalletti
06/13/2011
Guy,
It’s an interesting point actually.
However, Dallas though is a team of Wins Produced all timers.
I’ll point you here: http://jbrocato.wordpress.com/2011/05/27/the-best-to-never-win-it-all-and-why-im-rooting-for-the-mavs/
3 of the top 5 active players in WP never win a title played for this year’s Mavs.
They also were the best team for WP in the second half and in playoffs. So they were not great in one facet of the game but they more than made up for it in others.
Without checking I’m pretty sure Lakers last year and Detroit off the top of my head are two inefficient shooting teams. I can look it up for a future post. Although I seem to recall the Scorecasting book studying this (and finding that you can get away with being below average in one area).
Guy
06/13/2011
Lakers were about average shooters (tiny bit below), but a bit better once you include free throws. But you are clearly right that there are different paths to success available, other than across-the-board excellence.
What’s especially remarkable about Dallas’ poor rebounding is that they have not one but two “great rebounders” (Chandler and Marion) who exceed position average my more than 3 rebounds per game. Yet even with these two, the team couldn’t manage even average rebounding performance. The decades-long run of bad luck for great rebounders continues…..
Neal Frazier
06/14/2011
bad luck for great rebounders like Rodman, Duncan, Shaq, and Ben Wallace? not sure how that helps the argument
Guy
06/14/2011
Yes, all of those players have had “bad luck,” in the sense that their teammates had below-average rebound totals. So the team does not end up with as many extra rebounds as it appears the great rebounders contributed. I don’t follow you — what argument does this “not help?”
Alex
06/14/2011
The Mavs were also below average in terms of defensive shooting efficiency; they were above-average at getting to the line, shooting from the field, not fouling, and forcing turnovers (just barely).
Last year’s Lakers were just about average at shooting but great on the offensive boards; the ’08 Celtics weren’t great shooters but were good on the boards; the ’07 Spurs were average on the boards but above-average shooters; similar story for the Heat; the ’04 Pistons were far below playoff average shooters but rebounded well; the ’03 Spurs were average shooters and just above-average rebounders (they appear to get to the line well and defend well); the ’99 Spurs were average rebounders but shot well. Any team I skipped was above average at both. By my count that’s 4 (’10, ’08, ’04, ’03) average or worse shooting champions and 4 (’11, ’07, ’06, ’99) average or worse rebounding champions.
Guy
06/14/2011
Alex: are you talking about playoff performances or regular season performances? I was mainly talking about regular season. I’m sure playoff performances are all over the map, given SSS and atypical opponents. Are there many champions who were only average (or below) shooters, or defenders, in the regular season?
Alex
06/14/2011
You started by noting that they were below average in the playoffs, so those are the numbers I checked. We could also ask the question of how much your regular season performance matters in terms of winning the championship. Let’s say a team happened to shoot or rebound much better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. That sounds like a good way to win a championship, even if it happened to be due to luck or odd opponents. Regular season performance is obviously predictive, but after a team has won it doesn’t really matter any more.
Guy
06/14/2011
Yes, the Mavs’ poor rebounding in the playoffs initially caught my attention. But what seems important is that they were a bit below-average rebounders for the season. It is consistent with the idea that rebounding strength is not an essential part of winning in the NBA today. More important still, this year there was little to no correlation between winning and rebounding in the NBA — I doubt that has ever been true for shooting efficiency.
If we divide team performance into three main categories — rebounding, shooting (eFG%+FT), and opponent shooting — I think rebounding is by far the least important of the three. An inividual champion may not be a strong shooting team — the 2004 Pistons were only an average shooting team, for example. But rebounding is so much less important than shooting, that I would guess that 1) few champs have been significantly below average in either shooting category, but a number have been below-average rebounders, and 2) few if any champs have gained more points from rebounding than either of the other two factors. But maybe things were different in earlier eras.
I think it’s also striking that a team that Arturo says has 4 WP “all timers,” three of whom derive a considerable part of their WP from rebounding (Kidd, Marion, and Chandler), could still not be a good rebounding team. This is diminishing returns on steroids.
marparker
06/13/2011
You guys are missing my point, which is my fault because I failed to elaborate.
Not a Miami fan. Obviously the Mavs are a good team because they just won the championship. They also destroyed everyone in their way and had a couple of comebacks for the ages. They played extremely well.
However, would you put any player they have on the 1st or 2nd all decade team? And maybe if you would put Kidd up there for point guard you wouldn’t be talking about the 38 year old Kidd.
Rex
06/13/2011
Depends whether you count Duncan as a PF or C. If the latter, then I’d say Dirk is next after KG on the all-decade teams.
But even if the answer is “no”, so what? The question is the quality of the whole team, and it’s their breadth and depth, not their peak(s), that sets them apart.
On the other hand, maybe you have a point about their talent, taken by itself. But then when you factor in coaching, boom, they’re back to being a good championship team.
dm
06/13/2011
Would Dallas have won the the championship if Caron Butler didn’t get injured?
Is that why they dedicated their title run to him?
Man of Steele
06/13/2011
Just a few comments based on seeing a pretty fair bit of the finals:
Miami really needs a good center to fill out their short rotation of James, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Haslem, and Chalmers. Bibby and House did nothing to help, and Miami would have probably been better rolling with a consistent substitute-level player (Chalmers) than either one. Replacing one of those two and Joel Anthony with at least a decent sub (.050 – .099 WP48) should be offseason priorities no. 1 and 2.
Dallas was balanced, and managed to win a title without a truly effective SG. Waiting around for Terry/Berea/Stevenson to get a hot hand shooting doesn’t seem like a good plan, but it worked well enough for the series.
marparker
06/14/2011
Chris Bosh and Haslem were truly awful. I was trying to find a champion who won without a .25wp48 front court player. I only went back to 1991 and I had to guess because I dont have the exact numbers, but I dont think it has happened. So, if the Heat want to win Lebron’s has to become their PF or they need to finagle some more upfrton help.
ilikeflowers
06/14/2011
I hope that Miami doesn’t overreact to losing in the finals. They really just need to get healthy, play Miller, play Chalmers, and add another one of those undervalued and always available low-points, high-rebounds big men.
Dallas will be interesting. Kidd is finally in decline unfortunately, Marion has been for a while, but prior to his injury Beaubois was looking very promising. If Chandler is resigned, will he stay healthy? Will Butler return to full strength from his injury?
It was also interesting to see Chicago, Miami, LA etc… fail to play some of their most productive players when it really counted – meaning that the coach simply doesn’t believe that these players are among their best. Dallas followed the keep it simple approach. Stockpile good players, play your most productive players regardless of their shortcomings, and pay attention to DR when you’re constructing your team. It probably really is that simple 95% of the time. Kudos to Cuban and Carlise.
ilikeflowers
06/14/2011
Of course Bosh isn’t worth the money, but this was true before the Heat signed him. I don’t know who they’d be able to swindle into taking him at the moment or even if it’s feasible.
mmotherwell
06/15/2011
Maybe to Denver for Nene? Throw in 3 first rounders and you might get a deal!