I’m not 100% happy with this one but when am I ever? Let’s get it out there.
And that’s kinda why I got off track. And it was an awesome detour. And we’ll get back to it. And I’m going to stop with the gimmick now.
But first,Combined WP48 take 5,6, eleventy? Let’s get on with it.
Just lie back and picture your favorite MVP candidate.
Ok, explanations first, fun and profit(?) second.If you’re new, welcome to my funhouse, feel free to peruse the Basics for background on the metrics used and remember that the numbers are made possible through the kind donations of Nerdnumbers .
What were doing here is looking at opponent adjusted Wins Produced. The goal is to get as close as possible to adding an individual opponent adjustment to the Wins Produced model. The driver for this has been the fact that currently Wins Produced divides defense up at the team level for all stats that are not in the boxscore and I have been trying for a while to get at this. Why? I don’t know call it a pet peeve.
The goal then is WP48 at the player level adjust for what the player does and what his opponent does.In layman’s terms instead of being compared to the average team, we compare you to the player on the other side. Sounds good but it’s a little difficult to achieve with publicly available data sources.
But that has never stopped me before.
What did I actually do? I worked out:
- Classic WP48 for each player.
- Opponent WP48 for each player by game based on time by position (this is Wins Produced by team based on deviation of the opponent from average) .
- Used opponent WP48 to generate losses Produced by opponent.
- Added them up into a number I’m calling Combined WP48 (by the simple expedient of taking the average)
Here’s the result:
More than a few fun conclusions come up. Top twenty in opponent Losses produced per 48:
Rondo is numbers #1 (which is very probably more than slightly helped by the Celts killer D). Howard is no surprise at number 2 (and Durant at 5 isn’t either , he keeps showing up when I do these things) . Kobe and James Jones are a surprise.
As for the MVP? I guess, I get to agree with Hollinger and call out the Big Man in Orlando.
Maybe I was just tired of having Love reign over me.
Oh what the hell, Before I go I’ll give you one Usage Curve: