Finals Game 4 : Missing in Action

Posted on 06/08/2011 by


“He’s a real nowhere man,
Sitting in his Nowhere Land,
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.”- Lennon/McCartney

Weirdly, they held a Finals game in Dallas tonight and only one of the Heat showed. This is very unexpected.

Prior to the Finals these were the Heat:

Lebron and D-Wade played like superstars (Wade was limited somewhat by some injuries). Throw in excellent performances from Bosh and Miller and Miami looked like world beaters.

A funny thing happened when we got to the Finals:

On the biggest possible stage, with the biggest possible stakes, Dwayne Wade has cemented his claim as the true heir to his Airness.

No Kobe. Not Yours. 6-24

Lebron seems to have gotten lost as of late. Bosh is on a Milk Carton.

Miami is a crazy heave three from Chalmers (that probably should have been called a backcourt violation) from being down 3-1 and facing elimination.

As for Dallas, who you may have heard won the game, even the German fever couldn’t keep him down. However, Rick Carlisle be warned, I watched the game with my wife, a passionate Barea fan, and it only took a quarter for her to start blaming his girlfriend for his trouble. The experiment was not a success.

Fun stat time: Dallas is + 14 in the last three fourth Quarters in this series.

For the series so far, the numbers look like so:

D-Wade is fantastic but he’s getting beat by a basketball team. His teammates have become hard men to find.

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated 6/6/11)

The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).

Heat-Mavs Game 4

Tyson Chandler as the Dallas MVP for the game. Marion and DeShawn stepping up. My wife joking that Jason Kidd played like he had money on Miami with those crazy passes. The best basketball player alive looking anything but for yet another finals game (2 for 8 career by my count).

Dirk’s night wasn’t very different from Lebron’s. Except for the fact, that once again, fever and all it got better in the end.

Critical Game 5 coming up.

Paging Lebron James.


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