“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”-Albert Einstein
I wrote in a private e-mail today:
“Yesterday’s piece was one of those pieces that just happen. I’d been working all weekend on some consulting work I need to hand in and when I went to write the Around the Wow piece the quote “oh the places you’ll go” popped into my head. Before I knew it, I was looking up Dr. Seuss books.
For some reason, my spontaneous/unplanned stuff can be really good (the last 4 pieces were all like that), whereas some of the more thought out stuff leaves me unsatisfied. Weird.”
This is fortuitous because two days ago I wrote a post on the 100 worst seasons/players since 1978. This inspired some familiar responses.
Now the studies referred have some technical problems ( If you run a regression you must account for other variables that could affect your result). This is why you’ll see me control for small samples (minutes), age, position and teams frequently. Prof. Berri’s covered this before in the comments here http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/ted-leonsis-endorses-stumbling-on-win or very thouroghly in Stumbling on Wins just buy the book). I’ve covered this before (see The Basics , and here ).
I pulled every players rebounding numbers from 1979 on (for every player with > 800 minutes played, see controls).
I looked at every player’s:
- offensive rebounds per 48 minutes (orb48)
- defensive rebounds per 48 minutes (drb48)
- total rebounds per 48 minutes (trb48)
- And for Grins and giggles, looked at all players and a subset of player ages 25-30 (see more controls, this time for age).
For your amusement that table is here. (This also allows for peer review of my findings).
My results? Here:
Do rebounding numbers fluctuate wildly based on teammates and diminishing returns? Short answer is no. Year to year correlation for total rebounds per 48 minutes is at 91% regardless of the age grouping. In fact, 82% of the population in the sample had an absolute error in year to year rebounding of less than 1.5 rebounds. If I break out the Minitab as well and graph it up:
So Wins Produced consistent season to season? Check
Rebounds not varying radically? Check
Unnamed individuals pestered into writing additional material on this? Check and check (You’ll just have to wait to find out).