“The most dangerous kind of waste is the waste we do not recognize.” – Shigeo Shingo
Muda is the Japanese word for something that is wasteful, doesn’t add value or is unproductive. The reduction of waste is one of the central ideas of the Toyota Production System (which in the west is called lean manufacturing) because the reduction in waste is an extremely effective way to increase profitability. How does this apply to basketball you might ask? Let’s talk about the least valuable players.
In series of previous posts (Build me a Winner rev.2) I talked about how I would run an NBA team if I were a GM.
We can all dream (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)
In it I made the following point emphatically:
“Never,ever,ever,ever have a loss producing player <.000 WP48 on your roster who has spent more than two years in the NBA. If you must evaluate potential, use the d-league (unless the bullet principle is being implemented). Lot’s of candidates here but we’ll call this Morrison’s Theorem of diminishing returns.”
Now’s a good time to go for the Basics if this is your first rodeo. As I’ve been trying to build a model to predict the upcoming NBA season, I’ve noticed more that a few of these loss producing players on more than a few rosters. So who are these players that should never be in your teams roster? Who are the the least valuable players in the NBA that should make fans cringe upon seeing their names in the program and more importantly where are they playing? The answer won’t really surprise readers of this blog.
Here are the qualifications for the LVP list:
- Only the 2008,2009,2010 seasons count
- Player must have played more than 1200 minutes
- Player must have accumulated less than zero wins in that period
I found 64 players that qualify for this list. 48 are currently on 25 NBA rosters.
The list looks like this:
9 of the ten worst are still gainfully employed in the NBA and 7 of the 10 are projected for more than 1000 minutes. If I summarize by team (and sort by projected minutes for 2011 for LVPs):
We see some not so surprising names at the top of that list in Philly, Washington, and Minnesota and one stunner in OKC. This is why my model doesn’t like the Thunder as much as the pundits. As currently constructed, their roster assigns more than a a quarter of their minutes to 4 LVPs (granted Green is getting better) .
Now some of these player’s will be cut but some won’t. And their presence might just be difference in some of the tighter playoff races.
Right Bulls Fans?
Arturo's Silly Little Stats v2.0 
Fred Bush
10/19/2010
Fun list.
Jacque Vaughn is definitely out of the FA market, since he just got hired by the Spurs as a coach.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
Good for him.
Chicago Tim
10/19/2010
He’s a bench coach, right? Coach T must know he can’t play! He’s a living, breathing victory cigar … I hope.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
They’ve been playing him a hell of a lot in the preseason (92 minutes thru 6 games or about 15 a game).
Chicago Tim
10/19/2010
It’s preseason! (Again, I hope that explains it. I just can’t understand it otherwise.)
Neal Frazier
10/19/2010
I wonder how many games a team composed entirely of these players would win?
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
We’ll I did two posts on that. The 83 Rockets had 0 wins produced and managed to win 11. The edges are sort of funny.
ilikeflowers
10/19/2010
I guess the real key is when these types of players play. If super scrubs like Scalabrine only play once the outcome is determined, then their ‘real’ wins produced is zero. It’d be interesting to see the effect on all players’ numbers if garbage time stats were thrown out. Garbage time could be empirically defined as all minutes played after your team was first behind at some point by so much that your win probability is less than some small percentage.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
It’s an interesting question actually. Not sure how to actually study that simply.
Chicago Tim
10/19/2010
Seriously, how do you arrive at 442 projected minutes for Brian Scalabrine?
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
CT,
He’s going to play. He played 512,504 & 472 minutes in 2008,2009,2010. 442 is a good projection. 🙂
Tom K
10/19/2010
Hi Arturo,
I’ve noticed Glen Davis is consistently a low value guy according to the advanced stats. At the same time he ‘looks’ like a solid contributor to the Celtics. At the very least he seems to come up big in pressure situations. I don’t think I’m alone in assuming that he’s a productive player, so is there something about his game I’m missing?
(Recent convert to your site and the WoW sites in general. Great insights all around that have added to my enjoyment of the game. Thanks!)
GovernorStephCurry
10/19/2010
He played well in the playoffs last year, but he’s sucked in the regular seasons.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
He does do some things (draw fouls/charges) that are not well captured in the model but yeah he sucked in the regular season. I’m hoping as a Celts fan that we can trade him for something down the line.
robbieomalley
10/19/2010
Arturo,
I don’t think Mardy Collins is on the Wizards roster. However, Adam Morrison is still there so your analysis in that regard is still accurate.
Also, didn’t the Pistons have some negative producers last season? I thought Rip Hamilton was in the negative range. I would also bet on rookies Al Farouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, and Willie Warren all being negative producers this year for the Clippers. I’m certain of Bledsoe.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
Robbie,
Yahoo and Sbnation list him on the roster. Sorry.
robbieomalley
10/19/2010
Josh Howard was also a negative producer last season but did not meet the minute threshold of 1200 minutes. Man the Wiz are gonna be great like frosted flakes.
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
has to be >1200 and negative for the three year period. But yeah, the wizards are like some sort of weird basketball experiment.
some dude
10/19/2010
Does this make Bargnani the least bang for the buck?
arturogalletti
10/19/2010
Separate post but probably. Just don’t let the thruthers hear you calling him a bust (right devin?)
jbrett
10/22/2010
Gotta love the Lakers’ offseason; their LVP signing projects to cost them ZERO wins. (I have vowed to stop gloating before the season starts.)