- “The Road goes ever on and on
- Down from the door where it began.
- Now far ahead the Road has gone,
- And I must follow, if I can,
- Pursuing it with eager feet,
- Until it joins some larger way
- Where many paths and errands meet.
- And whither then? I cannot say.” –Bilbo Baggins ,The Lord of the Rings J.R.R. Tolkien
One of the favorite parts of my favorite books, the walking song of Tolkien’s hobbits represents the promise and wonder of the future and of things to come. In every life, journey and endeavour, there is a beginning, a middle and an ending.
For the rookies coming into the NBA this year, this week represented a beginning full of promise and expectation. For some it was a tantalizing vision of greatness to come or the beginning of a long career, and for others a foreshadowing of mediocrity or abject failure. For the media and those who love the game, it was a retelling of one of our favorite stories, a reboot if you will with a brand new and exciting cast that even though it retreads old familiar ground will provide endless entertainment and wonder for years to come.
What make;s this compelling viewing is that we see ourselves reflected in their journey and their struggles. The battle to stop overthinking, stressing and stumbling and the beauty of finding that transcendent moment of unexpected greatness or tragedy is a universally relatable experience. And then there’s that moment when someone like Griffin or Wall just are for the first time on an NBA court
For me personally as well, this is a week of beginnings and endings. I’m in the process of changing jobs this week. Much like an incoming rookie, I’m moving from a safe job to an opportunity with more challenges and more potential rewards. For this blog as well, it’s a beginning. In this my first full season of coverage, I am building the structure, traditions and series which will allow me to keep you amused for years to come.
Ok, ok, i’ll stop with the flowery sportswriter prose and pathos before someone calls down Fire Joe Morgan on me. Let’s get to the business at hand.You came here for silly stats, funny pics and my lame attempts at wit. Let’s talk about rookies.
Before we start sling tables and numbers, if you’re a rookie here yourself go read the Basics. All the math,numbers, tables, and conclusions are Powered by Nerd Numbers.
With this series I will rank and review rookie performances during this NBA season. This will be one of the lynchpins of my blog for this season (and however long we continue to inhabit this space). As longtime readers of this blog know, nothing inspires me like the NBA draft and rookies. To illustrate and provide some background, here are a few of my pieces.
The Draft:
Part 1: Finding Elite Rookies in the NBA Draft or How the NBA Draft is a Lottery
Part1a: The Top 33 Rookies in the Past 33 Years
The WSJ Piece: Arturo Galletti Evaluates 30 Years of the NBA Draft for the Wall Street Journal
Part 2: Ranking 30 Years of Draft Picks
Part 3 :A Sunday Kind of Piece: Return of The Draft
Where I ask How good are GMs at finding talent?
(The answer: Not Very)
Part 3a: The Draft,The Draft,The Draft………
Where I concluded that:
- Talent is always available in late in the first round.
- The trick is finding it with some accuracy (which I postulate we can do).
- Given that the identification is risky a later,cheaper pick is better.
This lead to a lengthy draft strategy segment in my guide to running an NBA franchise (Build me a winner rev.2). Which you can go read for detail (it’s really good I swear 🙂 )
Based on my findings I wanted to see if I could build a model to predict rookie performance. So I did.
The Rookie Models:
I built two models (go here for the model build parts 1 & part 2 ). I called them : Yogi and Booboo.
To give you an idea of the value of the models I decided to look at:
- The probability of landing a better than average player (>.090 WP48) for his first four seasons
- The probability of landing a good player (>.150 WP48) for his first four seasons
I also decided to show this for:
- Any qualifying pick (>400 MP in his rookie Year)
- Any Top 5 pick
- Any Top 10 pick
- Any 1st Round Pick
- And Both models.
And this was done for 1995 to 2009. The table is here:
The best performing scenario is both models calling for you to draft the player, followed by Yogi then Boo Boo then having the Top five picks. Yogi is more picky, Boo Boo casts a broader net and is more accurate.
So with a good model in hand, I got to work on evaluating the incoming rookie class.
The Rookie Projections for 2010-2011:
The full rookie projection is here
For the reader’s digest version, It took all the player data, fed it into the models and got this (ranked by projected wins):
Only Griffin projected out as a difference maker for his team based on the model and his college numbers.
At reader’s requests, I then added some of the undrafted players:
The final component in this recap is rookie performance for the preseason:
Still here? Good. Now that you’re all caught up on all my silly little stats about rookies and the draft from the preseason we can talk about how the rookies have performed since the season tipped of.
The Rookie Year Rankings for Week#1
No preamble just the numbers. 46 rookies have played so far in the regular season and there are some standouts. Landry Fields is one (as noted by WOW godfather Prof. Dave Berri). Favors, Wall , Gary Neal (seriously, pop and San Antonio strike again), Evan Turner and Blake Griffin follow. Now while someone like John Wall has exceeded my and the models expectations so far, before we get too excited and I’m asked to issue an apology to Ted Leonsis we need to be aware of a simple statistical truth: 3 to 5 games is a small sample.
The law of large numbers (LLN) describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. It’s a simple enough theorem, the average of results obtained from a large sample (or number of trials) will get closer and closer to the real value of something the larger the sample. Conversely, the error (or more accurately the possibility of it) gets larger and larger the smaller the sample . What does this mean?
So rushing to judgement based on a small sample is premature. A larger sample size is called for before we can make any solid conclusions. We will simple need to wait a few months before the in-season numbers tell us anything concrete.
Well, I for one say: that’s no fun, nuts to that. Luckily enough I, I came up with a nifty work-around. Take all the data available, mix it all up and voila!
Ok, i’ll explain. Here’s what I’ll actually do.
Take:
- The Regular Season Wins Produced numbers and minutes played for each rookie
- The Preseason Wins Produced numbers and minutes played for each rookie
- The Projected Wins Produced numbers based on their college performance (for minutes here we’ll treat it as a 10 game sample times the minutes played per game in the current season) for each rookie
- Then we take a minute weighted average of the three and use that to rank our rookies.
The advantage to this is that it increases our sample size and allows us to project the rookies based on a combination of who their college numbers tell us they were, what they showed in the preseason in a small sample and what they’ve done in the pros (so far). As the season goes along our regular season minute sample will increase for players (on average) accordingly and we’ll be inch closer and closer to their true value (and the importance of the projection and the preseason will fall away). I call it the Combo-Breaker.
Using this method,the Rookie rankings look like this:
Griffin regains the number one slot based on his ridiculous performance in the preseason and his projections. Landry Fields nips at his heels at number two. The player some have called a “bust” Evan Turner for not scoring is liked by all parties and comes in at number 3. Evans, Harris and Omer Asik are also liked by all parties involved for 4 thru 6.
John Wall has exceeded his projections both in the preseason and so far in a small sample size in the regular season to move up to number 7. Derrick Favors has destroyed his preseason numbers for number 8. Both of these guys will move up massively by next week if they keep it up. Five more players round out the group expected to contribute at least 2 wins : Paul George,Gary Forbes, Tiago Splitter (who’s riding his projection right now and may drop rapidly if he doesn’t perform), Harvard man Jeremy Lin and the starting center of my fantasy team Demarcus Cousins.
After this group, the most notable player is Jeff Adrien, who’s totally killed it when he’s gotten on the court in the regular or pre-season.
From a team perspective we see:
The Clippers and the Knicks unsurprisingly project to get the most value from the draft with the Nets and the Wizards so far exceeding projections. One final note is that right now, for the Wizards, John Wall literally and figuratively is the franchise (as in he accounts for 12.9 of their projected 13.2 wins).
Raspu10
11/04/2010
Yes. The approach makes sense, small sample and all. The argument against small-minute sample size players is that the results are flukey, and they are. But with some players, like Adrien, you have to begin asking how likely that every fluke shows exactly the same thing.
arturogalletti
11/04/2010
As an undrafted player, Adrien could be a game changer for the Warriors. They need to get him minutes to see if he’s really this guy. A .100 rookie undrafted player would be fantastic. A .300 undrafted WP48 player at the 4? Wow. He would be on my want list as a GM come dec 15th (when I could trade for him).
Raspu10
11/04/2010
yeah, that would be “pinch myself I’m dreaming” territory. Lin’s WP48 will come up, since his 18 minutes were a real oddity (again) – he essentially traded 5 fouls for 5 possessions against the Lakers in 11 minutes, and as a short-run tactic it was quite effective in narrowing the gap. But deliberately sacrificing efficiency to generate possessions shouldn’t come up too often for a point guard on a rebounding team
Shawn Ryan
11/04/2010
That was quite a post. I really like the idea of tracking these rookies throughout the season. I expect that we’ll learn a lesson on volatility and the importance of sample size simply by watching the numbers fluctuate.
arturogalletti
11/04/2010
Shawn,
Thanks, I really want to see how the numbers move as the season progresses.
Neal Frazier
11/04/2010
does your chart really have ATL down for 65 wins? I thought you had them closer to 50?
(As always, going for the capillaries here…)
arturogalletti
11/04/2010
Neal,
It’s based on numbers after five games. So if Atlanta played 82 games @Mephis,@Phili,@Cleveland and Home vs Washington and Cleveland they’d win 65 games. 🙂 Small sample sizes.
Bill Gish
11/05/2010
You made a reference to Cousins being the center on your fantasy team.
I can’t be the only one who’s interested in how you draft in fantasy. Does WP48 enter in to your choices?
Would you please post a reply showing your roster and maybe a brief comment on how you made your picks?
arturogalletti
11/05/2010
Bill,
I’m playing in a WOW analyst ESPN WP48 league run by reservoirgod of Miami Heat Index. I’m an expansion team (together with Rob O’Malley of RoBlog and Devin Dingham of NBeh), so I had to scramble to get players who were not kept. The league rules are a little strange. You get points based on:
a. Player’s aprox WP48 (calculated using the Win Score aproximation and using the total for players at the position in the matchup for the baseline)
b. Position on your roster (Starter gets 3 times the minutes of backup minutes
It was an auction draft and my strategy was to determine the players price using my model and not overpay (and try not to allow anyone else to underpay). I was also trying to end up with multiple position players (think PF/C) than I could play out of position for an advantage. I ended up with:
THE MACHINE BANNER18
65 Steve Nash, Pho PG $98
68 Andrei Kirilenko, Uta SF $58
69 David West, Nor PF $40
71 Mo Williams, Cle PG $34
73 Stephen Jackson, Cha SG $26
76 Jarrett Jack, Tor PG $30
80 DeMarcus Cousins, Sac PF $61
83 Antawn Jamison, Cle PF $27
84 Jeff Green, OKC PF $21
92 Kevin Garnett, Bos PF $14
94 Hedo Turkoglu, Pho SF $7
97 Danilo Gallinari, NY SF $17
99 Andre Miller, Por PG $9
102 Ben Wallace, Det C $17
111 Serge Ibaka, OKC C $23
Hedo was a result of me overestimating the value he had for the auto-drafter. He’s gone (for Erick Dampier I needed depth at big). So far Miller, the two Jacks (SG), Green at SF, Garnett and Ibaka at PF and Wallace were all good buys. Cousins is improving, Kirilenko is Kirilenko (a serviceable utility player who good to have when healthy). Nash ,Jamison and West have not done well so far.
I guess, it’s a little like being Matthew Berry. For example, I put in the handcrafted WP48 piece before the waiver deadline and it sparked a run on Landry Fields (who I really liked). I also put in the player projection before the draft which was exactly like handing in my draft list (minus prices).
Man of Steele
11/05/2010
Arturo,
You were exactly right to shoot for multi-position players, at least in my opinion. The greatest advantage in our league is a great player who can play at two positions. In particular, Centers who can play PF and PFs who can play SF are a huge advantage.
Also, having done the auction draft last year (I was out of pocket during draft time this year), I can attest that not allowing others to underpay is the most difficult aspect of the draft. last year somebody got Lamar Odom for $6, and this year res. god got Samuel Dalembert for $1. It’s hard to predict what everyone else will do.
Anyway, reading your blog makes me start to think that I should avoid making trades with you, since you’d probably get the best of me 🙂 Maybe the best strategy is to let you fleece everyone else and make the playoffs as an expansion team, only not at my expense!
Anyway, good to have you in the league.
Man of Steele
11/05/2010
Great article, Arturo. I’m definitely hoping that the players’ performances tend more toward the projections than toward the performance in the first week of the season. I am really counting on Blake Griffin for my fantasy team, so it would be nice if he ended up around .180-.190, instead of .080.
Shaun
10/11/2014
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