The Rankings and Projections for 1/16, a few toys and links

Posted on 01/16/2015 by


I’m not doing a full rankings post today. The reason for this is that I’ve been rather busy.

First I helped coach Nick put together the first episode of what will be an ongoing weekly MVP review.

I also continue to work on the Team Breakdown tool (check it out, it’s updated).

There may also be a long post and a podcast in the can.

I may also be working on a real time Game Review tool.

What's this doing here?

What’s this doing here?

Yep, the Harden trade is in the first paragraph of Presti’s Obit.


Let’s talk numbers. First the ranks:

Power Rank

Now the individual game sim. Here’s the previous projections:


Projection #1 (1/02 thru 1/04)

Projection #2 (1/05 thru 1/09)

Projection #3 (1/09 thru 1/11)

Projection #4 (1/12 thru 1/16)

The results so far look like:

Some Numbers Now Previous Delta
Model Straight Win Loss 61.2% 63.30% -2.13%
Just pick the Home team Win Loss 52.9% 57.00% -4.06%
Model edge 8.2% 6.30% 1.92%
Home team average Error -1.0 0.1 -1.1
Road Team average Error 1.0 -0.1 1.1
Standard Deviation 12.5 13.3 -0.8

That’s nice progress.

Remember this is for science and recreational purposes only of course. I take no responsibility for any possible losses. For wins, I simply ask that you buy a beer if you see me at Sloan.

Here’s the weekend’s projected point margins:





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