Simulating the Week for 1/12/15 thru 1/16/15

Posted on 01/12/2015 by

3



Bit short on time today. So not a lot of chit-chat.

First the ranks:

Untitled

 

Now the individual game sim. Here’s the previous projections:

Projection #1 (1/02 thru 1/04)

Projection #2 (1/05 thru 1/09)

Projection #3 (1/09 thru 1/11)

The results so far look like:

Some Numbers
Model Straight Win Loss 63.3%
Just pick the Home team Win Loss 57.0%
Model edge 6.3%
Home team average Error 0.1
Road Team average Error -0.1
Standard Deviation 13.3

The edge versus just picking the home team remains. I will be looking at how it compares to Vegas once I can actually download the relevant data.

One important note is that I’m moving the variability up from the Historical NBA number (around 11.3 pts). Variability has been on an upswing over the last 2 seasons. 13.3 Seems to be the new normal. I will probably write something on this later.

Remember this is for science and recreational purposes only of course. I take no responsibility for any possible losses. For wins, I simply ask that you buy a beer if you see me at Sloan.

Here’s the week’s projected point margins:

Untitled

 

Enjoy.

-Arturo

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