Simulating the Games for 1/2/2015 thru 1/4/2015

Posted on 01/02/2015 by

3



As you might be aware, I simulate every game using my Power Rankings every time I run the power rankings so I can generate a predicted season result.

As of today that result looks like so:

Sim

One thing that I thought might be interesting to some of you out there is if I published the actual game simulation results and I showed the projected spread of point margins for a small window into the future using the mathematical model for the distribution.

For science and recreational purposes only of course. (Note: the home/road were flipped in version 1 of this post. That is now corrected).

Weekend Lines

If this goes well, we might make this a regular thing.

A few weirdness notes:

  • The Model has the Nets as road favorites in Orlando and heavy,heavy road favorites in Miami.
  • Hornets are favored over the Cavs and that might understate it.
  • Pistons are 65% percent to win each of their two games. Josh Smith dividend!
  • Raptors are slight favorites over the Warriors because the HCA in Oakland is historically terrible in this scenario.

-Arturo

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