Finals Game 5 : One Step Closer

Posted on 06/10/2011 by


“I cannot take this anymore
I’m saying everything I’ve said before
All these words they make no sense
I find bliss in ignorance
Less I hear the less you’ll say
But you’ll find that out anyway

Just like before…

Everything you say to me
Takes me one step closer to the edge
And I’m about to break
I need a little room to breathe
Cause I’m one step closer to the edge
And I’m about to break “- Linkin Park One Step Closer

Lebron James can do anything apparently. Including laying up a below average triple double (.035 Wins Produced) . Show up for what he called the biggest game of his career in the 4th Quarter? Not so much.

The best player in basketball should not get outplayed in the most important game of his life by Jason Terry, JJ Barea and Mario Chalmers.

Before you get mad, just remember, he said so himself

The Mavs continue to roll like a team. Jet, Kidd and Barea all came back from the Hereafter to haunt Miami

As for the German dagger? Fun Stat time: 4th Quarter Scoring in the Finals Dirk 52, Lebron 11.

Feeling it in the 4th

For the series so far the numbers look like so:

A masterful Wade performance is in danger of being wasted here. Lebron can take solace in the fact that he’s not hurting his team like a Bosh (but really that’s not enough here). The Miami centers however are being taken to school by Tyson Chandler. Bosh is worth the money.

For Dallas.

Peas in a pod apparently

Oh and before I forget:

Did someone feel a breeze?

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated 6/6/11)

The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).

Heat-Mavs Game 5

The Jet and Barea showed up as Dallas finally had a good shooting game. Jason Kidd finally disproved my wife’s point shaving allegations against him. Mario Chalmers was the best player for the Heat (seriously, he’s about to catch Lebron’s WP48 for the series this is not a good sign for Miami).

The big story for the game was the Wade injury. Would it have been enough for Miami to win if he’d been healthy? Given that Lebron played his best when he was out , I don’t think so. But the nature of things is that we can only speculate.

One Dallas victory from the title. Given that at this point I don’t trust any Miami lead, I’m sticking with the German and his crew.

Mavs in 6.

Everyone realizes we're a crazy Chalmers heave from Mavs in 5, right?

Paging Lebron James.

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