Finals Game 3 : The Fork in the Road

Posted on 06/06/2011 by

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“But with the throttle screwed on, there is only the barest margin, and no room at all for mistakes. It has to be done right… and that’s when the strange music starts, when you stretch your luck so far that fear becomes exhilaration and vibrates along your arms. You can barely see at a hundred; the tears blow back so fast that they vaporize before they get to your ears. The only sounds are the wind and a dull roar floating back from the mufflers. You watch the white line and try to lean with it… howling through a turn to the right, then to the left, and down the long hill to Pacifica… letting off now, watching for cops, but only until the next dark stretch and another few seconds on the edge… The Edge… There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. The others- the living- are those who pushed their luck as far as they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down, or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now and Later. But the edge is still Out there”

Hunter S. Thompson “Hell’s Angels”

My first impression on seeing the Chalmers heave go in was that the game could very well come down to that one lucky break.

This game was played on the edge. It was a back and forth. Dallas was sloppy in the first half and Miami took advantage. Dallas turned up the pressure and cleaned it up and came back. Wade and Nowitzki dueled like masters all night. The refs made homecourt manifest.

Dallas came all the way back but the last shot was down two instead of up 1. Made all the difference.

For the series so far, the numbers look like so:

For Series MVP there is but one answer.

That would be Mr. Two Time Finals MVP Dwyane Wade

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated 6/6/11)

The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).

Heat-Mavs Game 3


Seems fitting that a pivotal game in a Mavs- Heat finals is all about Wade and Dirk. Both were Amazing. In the end Flash won out over the Dagger. For this game though, who didn’t show up was the most important. Bosh was horrible but JJ and the Matrix out stunk him tonight.

Honey, I think you put in the wrong DVD

The developing story for this series seems to be that only two guys for the Heat are showing up but Dallas is playing such uneven games that it isn’t really mattering.

And of course, Dwyane Wade is the the greatest shooting guard since Michael Jordan.

Must Win for Dallas coming up.

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