Draft Pedrigree in the Finals

Posted on 06/04/2011 by

5



It occurred to me that I hadn’t done anything on the draft or any cool posters in a while.

Or a simple fun post.

This is an oversight we are going to correct .

You can blame my partner in crime Andres Alvarez and Benjamin Morris for this one.

Andres Alvarez (@NerdNumbers) for asking the following on Twitter:

“Opinion question. Does getting the #1 Pick in the Draft Lottery really up your odds at a title?”

And Ben for writing a nice piece in response (see here ,seriously, go read it).

Ben’s finding is that yes it does matter.

Long-time readers know that this is old and fertile ground for me (see here for a good example).

Let’s just say inspiration hit like a sledgehammer.

Or like this

I dug out some data sets and confirmed  that I do agree with Ben. The devil though is in the details. Which  I’ve spent some time actually working out.   The key point is drafting right and knowing when to trade.

Coming up with an actual pick value chart helps. That looks like so:

Consider that a  preview of future draft content (any NBA teams that are interested in a table version of that in advance make all checks payable to Arturo 🙂 )

Spoilers and Foreshadowing

 

But let’s get back on track.

I decided that it would be fun to look at the draft pedigree of all the NBA Finalists since 1978. I also decided that to actually count as the team getting something from you in the finals you had to crack the Top 6 in the Rotation ( see the Half Baked Notion section of the Basics for explanations).

So I did:

Turns out Miami-Dallas 1 and 2 have been the most loaded finals in terms of Draft Talent since 1991 Bulls-Lakers.

That’s not the poster though.

This is:

See you tomorrow.

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