Finals Game 2 : Hubris and the German Dagger

Posted on 06/03/2011 by

10



Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall. – Proverbs 16:18

At 7:14 left in the 4th Quarter, Dwayne Wade made an open three to put Miami up 88-73. The Miami Crowd went insane. Lebron and Wade celebrated in front of the corpse of the the Dallas Bench.

Mission Accomplished right?

Wrong.

It’s always darkest before the dawn.

Feel free to press play.

Because Dirk? He just did it again.

Mark Jackson was right for once.  There goes that man. He just had the wrong man.

Enter the Matrix

We tend to forget that Shawn Marion is a really good player.

22 to 5 in Dallas’ favor from that point on and a win for the ages. Cue a hell of a lot of sportwriters with  a rewrite on their hands.

Apparently Chuck talked to the Mavs during the commercial break after the Wade 3

I kept watching the game and thinking:

  • Miami is getting outrebounded and taking bad shots .
  • Dallas is playing sloppy ball and that combined with Miami’s athleticism is what’s costing them the game.

Regression to the mean is a hell of a mistress.

Game on.

Before we get to the boxscores: that Podcast I promised? It’s up (just not here, see I didn’t miss a post we just relocated to a new home).

Foreshadowing, you'll get this eventually. (image courtesy of xkcd.com)

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated soon)

The Box-score follows (I fixed TS% and added totals).

Heat-Mavs Game 2


Dwade was legendary for the Heat and Lebron and Bibby were fantastic. On a typical night that would have been enough. But the rest of the Heat didn’t show up to the party (or maybe left early to catch happy hour on south beach?).Bosh may have actually  had a few before gametime as he seemed to be playing for the wrong team at times.

The secret, Mavs fans is that Dirk didn’t put together a great game, Shawn Marion was the One true MVP for the Mavs in this one. Dallas showed up six deep (Marion,DeShawn,Kidd,Terry and Dirk) to steal homecourt.

I thought the game 2 winner would win the series. Still do.

Heat fans, meanwhile, learned a lesson familiar to any soccer fans reading this space:The Jerry will always break your heart.

Did I jinx us? Next question.

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