Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/24/2011

Posted on 05/25/2011 by

2



For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of a horse, the rider was lost;
For want of a rider, the battle was lost;
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail. –Proverb

Rotation,Rotation, Rotation.It’s all about rotation.

The last piece of the Miami Big Superfriends I expected finally showed up and it killed all our predictions (because even our resident Heat expert had the rotation wrong 🙂 )

It's going to be a problem when he's healthy next year. For the rest of the NBA.

At the beginning of the season,I wrote quite a bit about the Miami Heat. It was only natural as it was the biggest off-season basketball story in three years.

Miami finally got to roll with the 5 players they wanted (Lebron, Wade, Bosh,Haslem and Miller) to roll with and it threw off all our predictions.

The Miami Heat are now finally the Bad Guys, the main event.

It's game time.

The fantastic part is that we now have a proper foe for them as well.

The German Assassin, the Puerto Rican Flash, the Defensive Powerhouse, The ex-Sun and the old Kidd

The Finals (if they’re Dallas and Miami and it certainly looks that way) will rock.

Let’s get to it.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Miami-Chicago Game 4




Miller and Chalmers at one and two for the Heat.  Deng and Boozer for the Bulls. Rose would be at number two, if he played for the Heat. I will defend  him somewhat in that as good a defense as Thibs runs, his offensive sets (hey, it’s an iso party!!!) leave a lot to be desired.

For the series so far:



Rose is pulling a mini-Westbrook on the Bulls. Mike Miller a mini-harden.

Podcast coming in a few and I just might have a bonus post up today as well.

We'll keep your basketball geek fed today

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