Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/18/2011

Posted on 05/19/2011 by

4



An effective Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller make a difference for the Heat.

A much bigger difference than Bosh actually. Particularly in this series in which rebounding is tantamount.

It was interesting that the biggest play of the Game involved Dwayne Wade taking somebody out again.

Seriously, How did the Bulls get this guy? I would kill to have him on the C's.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Bulls-Heat Game 2





As I said, Wade and Lebron carrying the load and Bosh being inconsistent is unsurprising. Miller and Haslem looking like their old selves is. The Bulls had an epically bad night with only Brewer showing up and still had a real shot at a win.

Bulls won’t play like that every night (they’ll make the dunks and the free throws). The Heat need this kind of performance from Miller and Haslem consistently to have a chance

This still looks like the Bulls but right now it looking much more like Bulls in 7 than in 5. That’s going to be much more fun than I expected after game 1.

Isn’t the unexpected grand?

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