The Best Offensive Performances in the Playoffs and Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/17/2011

Posted on 05/18/2011 by

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You know, It was a point of pride for me that I got these up just after the games ended and before going to bed.

Oh well, Dirk Happens.

He really is all that even without his mighty hammer Mjolnir

Dirk was straight out amazing last night. So amazing in fact that I wanted to put him in perspective.

Now in terms of Wins Produced he only had the 3rd best game of this Playoffs. You can see that here:

Game ID Player Team Wins per 48 Minutes Wins Produced Rank Wins Produced
LAL-NOH1 Chris Paul NOH 0.915 0.773 1
LAL-NOH4 Chris Paul NOH 0.838 0.760 2
DAL-OKC1 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 0.799 0.681 3
MIA-BOS3 Kevin Garnett BOS 0.819 0.644 4
BOS-NYK2 Carmelo Anthony NYK 0.678 0.620 5
MIA-BOS5 Dwyane Wade MIA 0.686 0.618 6
ORL-ATL2 Dwight Howard ORL 0.616 0.616 7
MIA-PHI3 Dwyane Wade MIA 0.701 0.577 8
CHI-ATL3 Derrick Rose CHI 0.712 0.562 9
DAL-POR1 Marcus Camby POR 0.923 0.558 10
MIA-PHI3 LeBron James MIA 0.588 0.543 11
DAL-POR6 Gerald Wallace POR 0.794 0.542 12
DAL-POR1 Jason Kidd DAL 0.753 0.538 13
OKC-MEM1 Marc Gasol MEM 0.721 0.530 14
OKC-DEN1 Kevin Durant OKC 0.593 0.529 15
MIA-PHI2 Chris Bosh MIA 0.715 0.517 16
CHI-ATL2 Joakim Noah CHI 0.633 0.508 17
LAL-DAL4 Peja Stojakovic DAL 0.796 0.504 18
DAL-POR5 Tyson Chandler DAL 0.684 0.497 19
CHI-IND5 Luol Deng CHI 0.574 0.490 20

Chris F#$%ing Paul everybody

And that’s great but I wanted to get at scoring efficiency. To do that I used:

    • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
    • Pts per play for the particular playoff year
    • Pts per play for the Player in that game
    • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
      • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League for Playoffs)*Offensive Plays for Player

I already have that for this year and it looks like so:

Clearly the best for the playoffs so far. The big question is how that stacks up historically. For that I worked out every playoff game from 1991 to now ( except for 2000, I’m missing that data). What I get is as follows:

So second best offensive playoff performance for the twenty years of data that I have (just behind Chuck’s 56 versus Golden State).

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Mavs-OKC Game 1



So Dirk legendary and Durant amazing we’ve established. The Point Guard battle was the pivotal one. Dallas owns Russell Westbrook. If that continues in this series? OKC can’t win.

As a final bonus for the day, here’s a way cool visual of the Scenarios for the TrueHoop smackdown courtesy of Ben Morris:

http://skepticalsports.com/?p=1633

Enjoy!

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