Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/15/2011

Posted on 05/16/2011 by


One round ends and another begins.

And what a beginning.

First the pertinent playoff links:

Let’s start with the end for our friends from Memphis.

One More for the road

Here’s the series wrap-up :

James Harden bailed the Thunder out. That he was the best player in the series allowed them to overcome Gasol and Z-bo (Nick Collison also helped. In the end, Memphis actually could have used Rudy Gay in this series.

Now the intro & background (Feel free to skip this part).

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

Grizzlies-Thunder Game 7

In the end, Memphis could not survive a bad game from their bigs because Kevin Durant was a bad,bad man.

A bad backpack wearing man

Series MVP goes to James Harden. Don’t look now but here’s your playoff top ten of remaining players:

James Harden is dueling for Playoff MVP on a per minute basis. Yikes.

I really need to run the numbers for that Western Conference Final.

Bulls-Heat Game 1

The Bulls laid the smack down in game 1. There was so much hype before this game that I was seriously disappointed. The media built the Heat up to mythic levels. The reality was a bit lacking. Reminded me of this:

Say it with me: Miami was overrated based on beating Celts with one armed Rondo.

Miami lost the battle at every position. My biggest reason for Chicago pick before the series: Taj Gibson. Chicago is slightly better than Miami on paper with Boozer playing more than Taj. Flip that? Then Chicago is way better on paper. Chicago is ridiculously long,deep and talented at the 4/5 (weirdly, Carlos, Joakim, Taj, Omer and Kurt  sound like the romantic interests in a  Danielle Steel book).

My final thought for this one?

Chicago in 5 was about as likely as Chicago in 7.

Full recap of Round 2 and the Picks coming tomorrow.

Here’s the individual playoff numbers for round 2 to get you started:

One final Bonus:

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