Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/11/2011

Posted on 05/12/2011 by

5



In the end, they fought and fought but time, injury and a great opponent caught up with the Big Three.

They did not go gentle into that good night. I will write more about this but not quite yet.

Here’s the series numbers:

As for Miami, the big story is that I think we’ve established the pecking order for this team.

If you wear the green bikini briefs, you need to own them

Lebron was great for this series but Wade was the dominant force. Bosh was good. To be fair it’s not really a Batman/Robin thing. It’s more like:

Batman,Batman & Robin and Wade is the original.

First the links:

Then the intro & background.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (will be updated tomorrow)

Celts-Heat Game 5

As previously stated the two Batmen and Robin where very good and overcame a scrappy effort from the C’s on the road. The Celts made Miami work for it but they really were not pushing them to seven with half a point guard (even though half of Rondo was still good). Good news for Miami is that I like them for the Finals. The bad news is that the numbers are not that favorable against their most likely opponents (the Bulls and Mavs). I still need to do some more crunching but that, is for a future post.

Grizz-Thunder Game 5

For this game, not a lot to say. KD was great and Daequan Cook was a super sub. Dead man walking game for the Grizz and they looked it (All but Grievis and Gasol). Kinda felt like this:

Still think this is OKC in 7.

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