Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/8/2011

Posted on 05/09/2011 by


I thought The Lakers were coming back?

Close out games are not a good look for Lakers

The series actually ended tonight.

Here’s the closeout numbers:

JET, Dirk and Barea as the MVP’s for the Mavs.  Nobody but nobody showed up for the Lake show.

I don't really know why I'm putting this here

Quick reminder before we get to that, Cool stuff is up:

Intro & Background first.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (it’s updated)

And now the games for tonight. These are written by Dre from Nerd Numbers, who is helping out Arturo, who was a good son in law on Mother’s day.

Lakers-Mavs Game 4

Peja and Chandler were supposed to be done because of injury. Dirk and Kidd were supposed to be old. Before the playoffs started the Mavericks were the desired opponent for most teams. So far that hasn’t ended up being the case.

Kobe’s killer instinct, which was sketch to begin with, did not appear. Bynum and Odom didn’t show up for the game and got kicked out early anyway. Pau Gasol finally showed up and played a little above average. Unfortunately, a little above average isn’t going to win games in the playoffs.

Hardly anyone saw Dallas coming. I suspect most people thought this would be a fight though and after the dust settled it wasn’t. Arturo and I are Boston and Denver fans respectively. As such you won’t see us crying any tears over Los Angeles leaving early.

Bulls-Hawks Game 4

I thought Derrick Rose was supposed to be the MVP? Sure, he scored over 30 points but at the cost of 32 shots the benefit to his team was negligible. Chicago had a strong front court this game. Unfortunately it was Gibson and Asik as opposed to Noah and Boozer. The truth may be that injuries are holding down the Bulls this offseason. Well that and Rose’s insistance on shooting.

In terms of Atlanta, talk about lucky! Joe Johnson is playing incredibly. Josh Smith and Horford played like at the top levels we’ve seen on and off during the regular season. I don’t know if Atlanta can keep this up. That said I’m definitely enjoying seeing Chicago squirm.

Here’s hoping the rest of the playoffs stay as awesome!

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