Rating the Scorers

Posted on 05/06/2011 by


Yesterday in my MVP post I came up with points over Par. A nice simple metric to rate scoring . It goes like so:

Four simple steps:

  1. Figure out the average league points per shot for the league. For 2011 its 1.225 points per Field Goal Attempt
  2. Find Shots taken and Points made for the player
  3. Multiply Shots (FGA) times average league points per game. This is Par or the average points expected for those shots.
  4. Calculate Points over par . Points -Par

Quick example: If a player gets 20 points on 22 FGA his Points over par are:

Par= 20 FGA* 1.225 pts/FGA= 24.5 expected points

Points over Par= 20 points -24.5 expected points = -4.5 points below par (and being below par is bad not good).

Today I take it out for a quick spin because it occurs to me I can use this metric to identify overrated and underrated scorers.

Evil Plan? What do you mean?

How so? The trick is to normalize (i.e calculate how much of an outlier for a particular stat a particular player is versus the typical nba player by measuring standard deviations from the mean) . The media and pundits focus on high scoring because it’s an extremely easy to identify outlier.  By Normalizing for total points and points over par we will be able to quickly identify the largest perception differences.

But enough with the explanations, let’s get to today’s program.

Every player with >1000 Minutes Played sorted from must underrated scorer (our MVP Mr. Howard of course) to the most overrated scorer (Hint he plays for the Warriors, no not that guy and no not the other one). Enjoy.

Remember kids, the name of the game is not good/bad but overrated/underrated.

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