Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/2/2011

Posted on 05/03/2011 by

13



Shit Happens.

God is a practical joker

No really it does.

Before we get to that a quick reminder, the WOW network has done 1st round post mortems for:

  1. Andres Alvarez with: Bulls-Pacers
  2. Andres Alvarez with: Thunder-Nuggets
  3. Heat-76ers by Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:Heat Produced: Breakfast by the Bay
  4. By Yours truly:Knicks-Celtics
  5. By Yours truly: Spurs-Grizzlies

More are coming soon.

Oh and my first round wrap-up and second round picks are up. The full WOW picks for round 2 are forthcoming.

Short Post today.

Intro & Background first.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (it’ll be updated later)

And now the games for tonight.

Bulls-Hawks Game 1


Hawks win behind a crazy game from Joe Johnson and a great game from Horford. Bad Rose shows up and gets hurt. I knew I should have taken five. I wish I could bet on Atlanta getting blown out in game 2. Wait……

Lakers-Mavs Game 1


Kept expecting the axe to fall on the Mavs in this one in the shape of the refs. Other than that unlikely sequence at the end of the first half (seriously 4 point in with less than a second left?) it didn’t. Dirk & Kidd over Odom and Gasol. I wonder if anyone picked that 🙂

Leaving the bonus from yesterday up. H

ere’s the final results for Round 1 as a table:


And as a word cloud (now individually colored by team):

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