Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/1/2011

Posted on 05/02/2011 by


I’ve never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure – Mark Twain

And the second round begins.

Anything else going on?

Before we get to that a quick reminder, the WOW network has done 1st round post mortems for:

  1. Andres Alvarez with: Bulls-Pacers
  2. Andres Alvarez with: Thunder-Nuggets
  3. Heat-76ers by Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:Heat Produced: Breakfast by the Bay
  4. By Yours truly:Knicks-Celtics
  5. By Yours truly: Spurs-Grizzlies

More are coming soon.

Oh and my first round wrap-up and second round picks are up. The full WOW picks for round 2 are forthcoming.

Speaking of that. I forgot to put this up yesterday:

For my mathemathically inclined friends

Intro & Background first.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (it’s updated)

And now the games for tonight.

Memphis-Thunder Game 1

Kevin Durant and Zach Randolph where superstars as we expect them to be. Marc Gasol however may be making the leap in front of our eyes. .721 WP48 for Marc tonight. .283 WP48 for the playoffs. Against Spurs and OKC who are not know as defensive weaklings. Seems, he’s totally and completely for real. If so Grizzlies could actually win it all.

Anyone else feel we’re watching the first of a long rivalry here. The rematch could definitely be in the conference finals.

Fun times

Heat Celtics Game 1

Ray and Wade were awesome and neutralized each other. Pierce and Lebron did as well (altough Pierce was shaking it off before he was rudely interrupted).  Bosh and Garnett a slight win for KG. As typically happens in the playoffs in matchups between even teams the role players for the Home team got  it done. Take a bow James Jones. You were awesome.

You know who else was awesome?

As a final bonus, here’s the final results for Round 1 as a table:

And as a word cloud (now individually colored by team):

Great way to end a great day.

To a job well done.

One final image.

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