Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 4/28/2011

Posted on 04/29/2011 by

18



Three series ended today. Sadly I was a bit diverted today and only got to watch the last one.

I may have been watching Idol. Seemed like a good Idea at the time. Let's never speak of it again.

So far we’ve done 1st round post-mortems for:

Knicks-Celtics

Bulls-Pacers

More are coming soon (Thunder-Nuggets is next)

Here’s the closing numbers for the Hawk-Magic.

Here’s the closing numbers for the Lakers-Hornets.

Here’s the closing numbers for the Blazers-Mavericks.


Full reviews coming soon.

Another great 1st Round is almost over.

And I am in a melancholy mood.

Intro & Background first.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

Case in point, I find this hilarious (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (it’s updated)

And now the games for tonight.

Magic-Hawks Game 6


A lot of Dwight, some Jameer vs a gaggle of Hawks and the Magic wind up with the short end of the stick. Have I told this story before. The Magic are going home but they and their fans can take comfort in knowing that they have a young,dominating franchise center that pretty much guarantees they’ll be a contender for the next ten years and probably win a title .

Wait. Didn't this happen with Shaq? Say goodbye to Dwight Orlando

Lakers Hornets Game 6



Anyone at this point that thinks Derrick Rose is the MVP can’t be my friend. Chris Paul buried that argument by leading what basically amounts to a rec league team to six game series against the defending Champs. Sadly, the Lakers are too deep, too tall and too good for CP3’s inhuman skills to get it done.Bynum and Odom were the key for LA here. Again, the Hornets, like the Magic,  are going home but they and their fans can take comfort in knowing that they have a young,dominating franchise PG that pretty much guarantees they’ll be a contender for the next ten years and probably win a title.

Heh

Blazers-Mavs Game 6


Gerald Wallace had the kind of game that typically guarantees a win for a player’s team. But, well, Dirk! Just Dirk! The Blazers gave it a real go again but in the end the German Wunderkind got it done. Now we get Lakers-Mavs for the first time in 23 years. Awesome.

I have a feeling we'll be getting a lot of this

The bonus for today is the Playoff Wins Produced Poster for the 1st Round so far. The Size of the Player is his Wins Produced. The Darker the Color the better the WP48.

I got a kick out of it.

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