Late Night

Posted on 03/23/2011 by

18



For the love of God, folks, don’t try this at home.-“David Letterman”

A while back I gave you something completely different (it even came with a ready made sequel).

It’s time for a comeback. Get ready for a Series of Good Nights part3 : Late Night.

But first let’s talk about the beginning:

A series of good nights is where we talked about the MVP by looking at good and great nights (using a heady mix of dementia, maths, excel, a heavy dose of the Basics and powered by NerdNumbers because hey mad genius switch? no off button). The graph up top is the wins generated for every game played by every player who has played more than 10 games this season. It’s very cool.

But it wasn’t quite right.

No problem. It's about Science after all.

Sharp eyed readers pointed out (hi Fred!) that by taking out all the games with less than 10 minutes played I skewed the distribution. My first thought upon having it pointed out was:

“I can fix this very easily, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….”

It may be about MAD SCIENCE though!

Ahem. So the modified data set looks like (including all games regardless of minutes and all games as of 1/11/2011):

And if I bring it up to yesterday:

21490 Games played by players (thank you, captain obvious)

.049 Wins generated is the average value per player

.157 is the standard deviation

By these new numbers I’d categorize games (and count them) as follows:

So the distribution is much more even and the skew is towards great games at 4.1% over lousy games at 1%. Coaching can spot a great game what do you know.

The real interesting tidbit is that if you add the wins generated by the average games and the losses from the Lousy and Bad games they cancel each other out. So it’s the good to great games that make the difference and account for the wins.

Let’s re-run the rankings, same as before. I’m going to:

  • Look at games with >10 Minutes Played
  • Look at players with more than 30 games played
  • Assign each player 2 points for a great game
  • Assign 1 for a good game
  • Dock him a point for a bad night
  • Dock him 2 for a lousy night
  • MVP will be the player with the Most Points.

Again , Kevin Love takes it and Howard nips on his heels . The LVP is no surprise to our Raptor fan friends. That Brooks trade looks very good all of a sudden right Dave?

I was going to write more but WordPress ate my post. Next time I’ll tabulate the results by team.

Unexpected ending is courtesy of xkcd.com

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