“We can’t define anything precisely. If we attempt to, we get into that paralysis of thought that comes to philosophers… one saying to the other: “you don’t know what you are talking about!”. The second one says: “what do you mean by talking? What do you mean by you? What do you mean by know?“ – Richard Feynman
Did you know I’m 1/4 irish?
Happy St.Patricks Day!!
Here’s the current version of my NBA now Rankings (All games current as of 03/16/2011):
I counted players only on their current teams. I divided the periods based on the most current date (i.e. most current two week period). I put in weights based on how recent each period was (most recent weighs 11, next most recent weighs 10, all the way to least recent weighs 1).
Loves the Celtics and the Thunder as currently configured. Chicago, Miami, Orlando, LA and Denver follow but based on these numbers Boston and OKC should be favored in the playoffs then (without getting into a discussion on Home Court, but if you want to skip ahead….).
That was quick! I guess were done until April. See you at the Finals!
GIS for Celtic Thunder was a real surprise for St. Paddy's Day. The more you Know
But we know that’s not quite right.
Take a look here:
That’s the minutes played per games played for every player currently on a roster that’s played since St. Valentine’s day (sorry Shaq). It’s meant to provide a picture of every playoff teams depth chart going into the playoffs. Why should we care?
Longtime readers know that 30 to 16 to 1 (the Half Baked Notion) is why. What is the Half Baked Notion?
The first post I ever wrote for the Wages of Win network (and in fact the first post written for the network) was about my beloved Celtics and how people should not be surprised by their success in the 2010 Playoffs against the Cavaliers (see here). One of the key points in the article was that bad minute allocation and inefficient use of resources doomed the Cavaliers. This led me to think about teams that were successful in the regular season but dramatic failures in the playoff which led to the Half-Baked Notion (full article here ).
The Half-Baked notion is this: what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what gets you the big trophy.
What’s the difference? Minute allocation & how wins produced are affected by that allocation. We continuously hear terms like playoff rotation and playoff minutes thrown around come playoff time. The funny thing is that when we use math and science to take a take a look at the data we see that the pundits may just be right .
The half baked notion tells us that a good deep team filled with average and above average players will get you in the playoffs but to get far in the playoffs you need your wins to be concentrated in your Top 6.
If we look at 2010 numbers:
- The best two players accounted for 55% of a teams wins in the 2010 Playoffs.
- The top three players are just below the pareto threshold
- The next three (4,5,6th man) account for the rest of the positive win contribution about equally.
- After that everybody else actually hurt teams in the playoffs.
With that in mind let’s try again. This time we are going to focus on every teams projected top 6 as of today( this is important for teams like OKC with Perk and Boston with Shaq) and re-rank the teams:
When we look at playoff lineups, Miami is the clear number 1 followed by Boston and everybody else is way back. Dallas jumps a level in the West but the Western teams are all bunched way close together from Dallas to Denver.
You may ask: is that it? Not quite. Remember kids, this is only a neutral site ranking and unlike the NCAA , the NBA does not hold it’s postseason at neutral sites. I still need to account for Homecourt and project out all the matchups.
But that is a story for another day.
Arturo's Silly Little Stats v2.0 
Some Dude
03/18/2011
Lakers play 5 >.2 or so and better players, right? Bynum, Pau, Odom, Kobe, and Barnes. In fact, 3 of em are .25 or more.
While I generally agree with you on the “top 6” thing, I think in the Lakers case, Barnes should be thrown in together with Ron Artest. He’s going to get legit run.
I’d also argue Miami’s top 6 is misleading, since they have a top 3. Okay, I’m sure you’ll still count Miller even though most people say he’s been kind of bad. But the #5 and 6 seem to be terrible, no? Have you ever had a “contender” in your database where the 5-6 or even 4-6 are this bad (since Bosh is only .135). And does this include Haslem, since there’s legit doubt he will be effective at all if he even plays.
Some Dude
03/18/2011
Found your think on contenders.
Win 52 or more games
Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) in your Playoff Top 6. A star is >.200 WP48 Player, a Superstar is a >.300 Wp48 Player
Have at least one .140 WP48 player who plays PF or Center in your Playoff Top 6 (credit to some dude and we’ll call it the Suns Corollary)
A superstar puts you in the conversation if you can make it into the playoffs and surround him with talent (i.e no duds) in the top 6 (credit to Neal Frazier and we’ll call it the Hakeem Factor)
Without Haslem, Miami does not qualify since Bosh is below .140, though he still has time to fix that. But it also says “no duds.” The Damp/Anthony with Bibby/Chalmers combo looks surprisingly close.
Miami is in a strange position calculation wise because their top 6 doesn’t have a center, which we know no makes no sense. Dampier or Anthony will have to be out there. I bet they bring the number down a lot.
the idea behind the top 6 is that your 5 starters + main backup matter. In Miami’s case, their C spot is such a revolving door, there is no 5th starter in your calculations.
Bearish on Spurs. Expecting them to be upset, perhaps?
One last question for now. I expect Wade/Bron/Bosh to play over 40mpg in the 2nd round and beyond. Probably close to 44 minutes on many nights. Players rarely play that much consistently anymore, so my question is would you expect their WP48 to decrease due to the increased playing times (they get tired or have to spread out their production more). If so, their current WP48 are inflated. I don’t know if you looked into this before.
John
03/18/2011
I really do think MIA is a special example because of their PG/C platoons. Maybe Arturo should average their PGs and Cs wp48 to create a number for those spots in the Top 6. Also I don’t think it’s that debatable whether Haslem comes back. How effective he’ll be is a legit question, however.
The Top 6 for MIA should be this IMO
James, Wade, Bosh, Avg PG, Avg C, and Miller.
With Haslem being the 7th guy. I’m going to assume that when Haslem comes back they’re going to try the Bosh/Haslem front court. And I’m also going to assume that like earlier in the season it’s not going to work out because neither are big enough to cover the opposing 5.
Anyway, that’s my view of it from someone who has watched a lot of Heat games.
arturogalletti
03/18/2011
SD/John,
I agree and understand your concerns.
Remember, This is a beginning.
Got to have something to write about for the next few weeks.
Greyberger
03/18/2011
Kevin Love!
arturogalletti
03/18/2011
Carmelo Anthony!
Chicago Tim
03/18/2011
Noah and Boozer have been inconsistent this year because of injuries. They still have time to get healthy and get on a roll before the playoffs. Asik is playing so well lately, I wonder if he will jump ahead of Thomas in the playoff rotation.
Nevertheless, I am worried about the ability of top teams to put it in another gear for the playoffs by shortening the rotation so only their best players play. The problem is that the Celtics and Heat, right now, still have holes at center. If Haslem comes back and plays well and Bosh moves over and Shaq comes back and plays well and Murphy somehow learns the defensive rotations and Davis doesn’t play maybe it will all come together in the playoffs, but those teams are banking on a lot of “ifs.”
Furthermore, right now Rondo is not playing well and Miami is not playing its best players (James or Wade) at the point. So there’s another concern in the rotation. If Miami and Boston don’t get it together at center and point, the two most important positions on the court, they will have trouble in the playoffs just as they have in the regular season.
Some Dude
03/18/2011
I don’t know why people claim Lebron and Wade don’t play the point. They play the point nearly every time down.
Chalmers/Bibby are the shooting guards on offense on that team.
Chicago Tim
03/19/2011
Well then they have bad shooting guards.
Eitan Rosenberg
03/18/2011
I’d like to see what eact playoff team’s 6-7 man rotation should be for the playoffs.
For example, I feel Portland may need to extend that rotation to at least 7 considering Roy’s status, potentially including Batum and Matthews. How should the Blazers allocate those minutes? If Shaq is healthy how does Boston rotate both Nenad AND Glen Davis, how many minutes should each get?