Win Run Chart: The East Wind

Posted on 03/10/2011 by

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“You left the East Wind to me,” said Gimli, “but I will say naught of it.”

“That is as it should be,” said Aragorn. “In Minas Tirith they endure the East Wind, but they do not ask it for tidings. …”

– The Lord of the Rings “The Two Towers”

You know I love visualizations.

Particularly when they tell a story (You really need to click on this)

Today you’re getting a truckload of the things.

There seems to be something strange afoot in the East. An ill foreboding for some of the contenders. Be it health, age, or just general catastrophe. A general malaise may be the norm of the day at the top of the East. But rather than ignore and keep our peace today we will tackle that rough monster and put it to the measuring stick.

Let’s finish visualizing all the contenders in the Eastern conference.

Remember kids, if this is your first visit (or you feel like a refresher) feel free to visit the brand new Basics (now on the Home Page!) and the numbers contained therein are courtesy of Nerdnumbers (now with new toys!).

Now we had already done the Heat,Celtics and Celtics (reposted and updated here):

And I discussed these at length (see here, here and here) but to summarize: Heat (no depth), Celtics (waiting on injured players), Bulls (damn it all to hell they have no holes).

Let’s talk about the rest of the contenders out East:

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, Dwight Howard is really good. A team with Dwight Howard and league average players (.100 Wp48) would have been expected to win about 46 games so far this year? Good job by the Magic in wasting a winning lottery ticket. I’m sure the Lakers will take better care of him in the future *Sigh*. This team is not going anywhere come playoff time.

What is the sound an NBA team makes as it circles the drain? Quick someone get a mike on the Atlanta Hawks! This team seems to be very much grinding to a halt after the trade deadline (yay Hinrich ?!???). At one point they looked to have a shot at Home court in the 1st Round. Now? a 7th seed seems much, much more likely.  Horford has been good for this team but that’s not close to enough.

The Knicks however are playing better since all the trade melodrama ended. The addition of Chauncey Billups has been good. The addition of the other pieces of the trade with Denver seems to be working out (yes even Melo who is more consistent than Wilson Chandler). I think this team is good enough to contend for the 5th Slot vacated by Atlanta (and the right to have Orlando and Dwight run them over) with our next and final east contender .

The 76ers are good. In fact, in 2011 the 76ers are really good. Iggy is a beast. Brand seems to have for the most part found juvenation. Holiday, Young and Turner are players. Turner has come on.  I think, I would have them favored over the Knicks for that 5th seed. My big concern for them is the health of Brand (who’s banged up right now) holding up.

Now comes the summary.

I worked out the win percentages and did a weighted average (weigthed towards the now) for win %.  Chicago came out 1st then Boston, Orlando, Philly, Miami , New York and Atlanta.

If I had to guess playoff matchups it goes:

Celts-Pacers (Larry comes back to Beantown!)

Chicago- Atlanta (The Derrick Rose MVP coronation special, sorry Dre!)

Miami- New York (Lebron! Wade! Amare! Melo! Chauncey! The Garden! David Stern is smiling in his office)

Orlando- Philly (the NBA tv special!)

Let’s end it here.

 

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