Fanservice: Surprise Title

Posted on 03/02/2011 by

10



Sometimes the smallest of things can have huge repercussions.

How many Frank Miller related blockbusters we up to at this point?

Reader Mike G. asks: “I have an emergency. I need your immediate updated prediction of Celts based on Troy Murphy acquisition. I’m hoping somehow this will reduce the negative impact of the 2 Thunder-ers, by transferring inefficient power forward minutes to high yield minutes.”

Mike you had me at Celts.

I’m keeping it short and sweet.

At first blush we gave away a starting center on a championship team and got back picks a bench guy (Murphy) and some scrubs (Green and Kristic). This looks to be of the bad. But looks can be deceiving and there’s a reason the Heat and Celtics were jousting over Murphy and it’s not because Ainge and Riley really dig the tall white dudes.

Player Minutes Wins Produced Adjusted WP48
2002Troy Murphy Born 1981 1448 -1.2 -0.040
2003Troy Murphy Born 1981 2510 9.8 0.187
2004Troy Murphy Born 1981 610 1.2 0.073
2005Troy Murphy Born 1981 2375 7.9 0.159
2006Troy Murphy Born 1981 2516 9.6 0.183
2007Troy Murphy Born 1981 1852 1.9 0.050
2008Troy Murphy Born 1981 2106 6.6 0.151
2009Troy Murphy Born 1981 2482 19.1 0.369
2010Troy Murphy Born 1981 2344 14.4 0.294

Troy Murphy has been a very good player in the very recent past. For the combined 2009 and 2010 season. Murphy played at a Superstar pace.  He was hurt early in the season and didn’t play when healthy as he wasn’t in the plan for the Nets. If we assume regression to the mean holds true with him this gives the celtics:

Starters:

Rondo (Star to Superstar)

Allen (Starter)

Pierce (Star)

Garnett (Superstar)

Murphy (Star to Superstar)

Bench:

West (Starter) ,Wafer(Bench), Green (Scrub at the 4 but Bench at the 3), Baby (Scrub at the 5 but Bench at the 4), Shaq (Starter).

Having a healthy Murphy also allows us to play Baby & Kristic less, play Baby and Green at their positions and let’s Baby get back to cheering from the sidelines in crunchtime (where his skills are sorely missed).

A quick table projection of this roster reveals (using Murphy’s three year averages):

Player Position Depth Minutes Wins Produced Wins Per 48 Raw Productivity per 48 Level
Rajon Rondo 1 1 1776.6 10.32 0.279 0.446 Star
Ray Allen 2 1 2094.0 8.22 0.188 0.327 Starter
Paul Pierce 3 1 2018.0 9.07 0.216 0.388 Star
Kevin Garnett 4 1 1551.0 11.05 0.342 0.614 Superstar
Troy Murphy 5 1 5114.2 33.48 0.314 0.292 Superstar
Delonte West 1 2 142.6 0.53 0.177 0.327 Starter
Jeff Green 3 2 1852.5 -1.47 -0.038 0.219 Scrub
Glen Davis 4 2 1707.0 -1.16 -0.033 0.254 Scrub
Shaquille O’Neal 5 2 746.0 1.85 0.119 0.424 Starter

This projects out to about a 65 win team for a full 82 game season and 70 win team once I go to playoffs minutes.

So my reaction to picking up Murphy

And the title of the piece:

Less Baby is good for Daddy.

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