A final Table on Melo

Posted on 01/19/2011 by

15



I know, you’re probably saying yet another Melo Post.

Believe me I know and so does Gojira

Last one until the trade I promise.

So there where a few more posts (at Truehoop and The Value of Carmelo Anthony: Measuring the Melo Effect at Basketball Prospectus). The ESPN piece is fluff (sorry Henry but stats bad, eyes good is not a valid argument), the Kelvin Pelton Piece is very interesting though. He argues that when you add turnovers back in there is a significant positive effect from having a high usage scorer on the court (“The Melo Effect”). I decided to run one more table:

If I look at points per possessions for each scenario, standardize the number of possessions the Nuggets get (because after all we’re all quite clear that rebounds get totally captured by Wins Produced 🙂 and work out the average points scored we find that the so-called Melo effect was good for three additional wins on average for the Nuggets for an 82 game season (or about .050 additional WP48).  This would put him at about .188 WP48 for the Season and still not  superstar (but  good).

Two quick points to end this bonus post. Altitude effects have to be accounted for with Melo (about .012 WP48), as well as defense as well as the role diminishing returns and the new team might play on his numbers (Read: New Jersey means his impact goes up because he plays on crappy team so I’d expect performance around .150 WP48 and in New York he and Amare cancel each other out).  As for the possibility of a High Usage Effect? I think this bears further research and analysis but I would postulate that high volume-high efficiency players are the key to receiving this effect.

 

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