A quick case of Fanservice (and a not so quick case)

Posted on 01/14/2011 by

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Today I’m taking requests.

First of is Chicago Tim, who asks me to post a run chart of Wins Produced (for newcomers, go here for the Basics.)for all of Derrick Rose’s games for the season. We aim to please:

I wrote a lengthy piece on Rose before the season. I concluded:

“The reckoning is at hand for Rose. To be a star or not to be a star,that is the question and for the Bulls that may make all the difference between disappointment and a ticker tape parade down Michigan Avenue.”

As a basketball fan I am happy to report that he’s risen to the occasion (as a Celtics fan not so much). Those MVP chants? Warranted (dammit).

That was the quick case. Let’s get to the not so quick case.

Reader tkenneyjr comments:

Hi Arturo,

Here’s a story from CBS on consistency of top scorers.

http://nba-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/27030243″

I’d read a little of that yesterday. I though it was a good conceit for a piece if a little flawed (I like the variation angle but though should have worked efficiency in as well, which he led with by the way). My initial take was that I might respond this weekend but you know things happen :-).

I decided to look at the top 25 players in terms of FGA per 48 minutes. The data follows:

I included points scored,shot attempts, points per shot (avg), points per shot (std dev game by game) and fga per 48 minutes. I then calculated points per 48 (mean and standard deviation by game) by multiplying the per shot values times shots taken by 48.

I did two graphs:

This one is ok . It reflects the actual expected points per 48 and the expected variation. It doesn’t account for number of shots taken. So the picture is not complete but If I account for that (by doing a graph based on the point per shot data):

A more interesting result in my estimation. To be explain the graph, lower down is more consistent and more to the left is more efficient. So Kmart and Dirk are more efficient (but inconsistent). Lebron and Beasley are the most consistent (but there a real difference in term of efficiency). C.J. Miles,  Chris Kaman are the worst (but Nick Young and Rip Hamilton are no great shakes).

Back with more fun tomorrow.

Before you get started (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

 

 

 

 

 

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