A Nightly Pattern of Behavior (slight table correction)

Posted on 01/13/2011 by


“God is in the details.”-Ludwig Mies van der Rohe

Yesterday, I gave you something completely different. Today I give you more of the same. The important bit is that we’re going to talk details and as the quote says that’s where God is. Interestingly enough so is the devil.

Familiar? yes but it's the details that make it great.

That was the lead yesterday. We talked about the MVP by looking at good and great nights (using a heady mix of dementia, maths, excel, a heavy dose of the Basics and powered by NerdNumbers). The graph up top is the wins generated for every game played by every player who has played more than 10 games this season. It’s very cool.

Mad Science to be exact (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

But sharp eyed readers pointed out (hi Fred!) that by taking out all the games with less than 10 minutes played I skewed the distribution. My first thought upon having it pointed out was:

“I can fix this very easily, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….”

Too much inner monologue?

Ahem. So the modified data set looks like (including all games regardless of minutes and all games as of 1/11/2011):

And here’s the modified rundown for those keeping count at home:

11522 Games played by players (thank you, captain obvious)

.048 Wins generated is the average value per player

.157 is the standard deviation

So by these new numbers I’d categorize games (and count them) as follows

Category Wins Produced for Game Count % of Games Win/Losses Cumulative
Lousy <=-.266 103 0.9% -33.4 -33.4
Bad <=-.109 1356 11.8% -218.6 -252.0
Average >-.109 and <.205 8334 72.3% 244.7 -7.3
Good >=.205 1247 10.8% 338.7 331.4
Great >=.362 482 4.2% 222.3 553.7
Totals 11522 100.0% 553.7

So the distribution is much more even and the skew is towards great games at 4.2% over lousy games at .9%. Coaching can spot a great game what do you know.

The real interesting tidbit is that if you add the wins generated by the average games and  the losses from the Lousy and Bad games they cancel each other out. So it’s the good to great games that make the difference.

Let’s re-run the rankings, same as before. I’m going to:

  • Look at players with more than 20 games played
  • Assign each player 2 points for a great game
  • Assign 1 for a good game
  • Dock him a point for a bad night
  • Dock him 2 for a lousy night
  • MVP will be the player with the Most Points.

Again , Chris Paul and Kevin Love are in a dead heat for MVP. Love has the edge in great games (but he also has the edge in bad ones). Our LVP however changed hands.

The aforementioned devils? The Nets as a contender with Melo. Ha I say, Ha!

But we’re not done yet.

Can I interest you in some team analysis?

How does this analysis reflect on teams? Here’s a nice scorecard I cooked up:

Note: I had an excel table error (I was dividing games by the Miami sample in all cases) on this which now has been corrected

Lot’s of data in there. Let’s talk about it some:

  • Toronto is the undisputed King of the Lousy Game. Six players who have played for them this season and five currently on their roster have done the deed.  Cleveland though may end up with this crown with the emergence of Ryan Hollins.
  • The Hornets,Nuggets, Mavs, and Bulls have avoided the lousy game for the most part. New Orleans though is getting killed by bad games.  their 9.6 losses is too much for them to be any sort of contender. Houston and Portland join the Hornets on the list of teams limited by bad games.
  • Miami’s stats across the board are ridiculous. They’ll be better when fully healthy. Sigh. At least we know Lebron will quit like a punk again in the playoffs (right Mosi? ).
  • San Antonio is the king of the average game and they have the least losses. Deep team, well coached, Popp is stealing the league’s candy as always.
  • The Lakers have a problem with giving guys having bad nights run and play. Their hope has to be that Phil can stop that come playoff time. But if the guy killing them is Kobe? I think people in San Antonio, Dallas and/or OKC will be very happy (and I think that already).
  • The Celtics, Shrek and Donkey, bleh. When are Delonte, Perk and Garnett all back?

And with that I bid you good night.

I'm from PR and this is hard for me to belive

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