Fanservice: Full Service Tables, Rating the Defenses and Sample Correlation

Posted on 11/20/2010 by

14



I’ve been debating Quality vs Quantity for this blog in the past few weeks. I tried the structured approach and didn’t love it. Yes the output was there but the process wasn’t as enjoyable and I think it showed in the result. Plus you know the lack of sleep was a definite problem.

Image Courtesy of xkcd.com

So now I’ll write when inspired (which will still be very regularly).

For today, I’m going to do some follow up work to yesterday’s post because as you know we take requests.

So request #1 is from reader Brandon:

“Awesome article!…any way you can put the final player list in a table/spreadsheet for quick searching?”

Flattery will get you everywhere.

Request number 2  is a little more complex.  From a discussion with commenter some dude. I was inspired to work out top win producing offenses and defenses for 2009-20010. First I looked at team vs team splits. I gave each split equal value and average them out for each team. That looks like this:

Team Raw wins generatedper Game Off % vs Baseline Raw wins Allowed per Game Def % vs Baseline Differential Drank
CLE 2.20 109% 1.79 88% 41% 1
ATL 2.17 107% 1.80 89% 37% 2
ORL 2.20 109% 1.81 89% 40% 3
SAS 2.14 105% 1.85 91% 29% 4
LAL 2.18 107% 1.85 91% 33% 5
POR 2.10 104% 1.85 91% 25% 6
UTA 2.26 111% 1.87 92% 39% 7
DAL 2.12 104% 1.89 93% 23% 8
DEN 2.17 107% 1.90 94% 27% 9
PHO 2.13 105% 1.90 94% 23% 10
OKC 2.19 108% 1.91 94% 28% 11
BOS 2.19 108% 1.94 95% 26% 12
MIA 2.09 103% 1.94 96% 15% 13
MIL 2.11 104% 1.94 96% 18% 14
CHA 2.10 103% 2.04 101% 5% 15
HOU 2.01 99% 2.06 102% -5% 16
TOR 1.89 93% 2.09 103% -20% 17
NOH 1.94 96% 2.10 103% -16% 18
CHI 1.93 95% 2.10 104% -17% 19
MEM 2.00 98% 2.10 104% -10% 20
PHI 1.94 95% 2.13 105% -20% 21
IND 1.95 96% 2.15 106% -20% 22
DET 1.88 93% 2.15 106% -27% 23
GSW 2.05 101% 2.15 106% -10% 24
NYK 1.91 94% 2.16 107% -25% 25
WAS 1.85 91% 2.19 108% -34% 26
SAC 1.87 92% 2.19 108% -32% 27
LAC 1.81 89% 2.26 111% -45% 28
NJN 1.72 85% 2.33 115% -60% 29
MIN 1.73 85% 2.40 119% -68% 30

So Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, San Antonio, Lakers, Portland, Utah & Dallas comprise the top 8 win suppressors for last year. The inclusion of Atlanta and exclusion of Boston was a surprise.

Finally Dan Rosenberry points out:

“How does this turn out if you check correlations to the rest of the season versus the full season?

For trade deadline purposes, that’s the correlation that matters. It doesn’t matter if they’re a star for the year including before the trade, but how they perform strictly after. A regression with a couple years prior stats and up to point X. How much confidence is generation for the rest of the season after X? Is this year’s bump for real after X games of > 10 MP?”

Good Question:

The correlation drops to around 70%. What’s extremely interesting is that there’s only marginal gains in the sample after twenty games. So after 20 games you will not gleam any more useful information before making a trade. Trade early then. This is interesting enough that it’ll go in to the next revision of the Build me a Winner sop for running a team.

That’s it for today. I leave you with a shout-out to Devin of Nbeh.

Keep up the good work


Team Raw wins generatedper Game Off % vs Baseline Raw wins Allowed per Game Def % vs Baseline Differential
CLE 2.20 109% 1.79 88% 41%
ATL 2.17 107% 1.80 89% 37%
ORL 2.20 109% 1.81 89% 40%
SAS 2.14 105% 1.85 91% 29%
LAL 2.18 107% 1.85 91% 33%
POR 2.10 104% 1.85 91% 25%
UTA 2.26 111% 1.87 92% 39%
DAL 2.12 104% 1.89 93% 23%
DEN 2.17 107% 1.90 94% 27%
PHO 2.13 105% 1.90 94% 23%
OKC 2.19 108% 1.91 94% 28%
BOS 2.19 108% 1.94 95% 26%
MIA 2.09 103% 1.94 96% 15%
MIL 2.11 104% 1.94 96% 18%
CHA 2.10 103% 2.04 101% 5%
HOU 2.01 99% 2.06 102% -5%
TOR 1.89 93% 2.09 103% -20%
NOH 1.94 96% 2.10 103% -16%
CHI 1.93 95% 2.10 104% -17%
MEM 2.00 98% 2.10 104% -10%
PHI 1.94 95% 2.13 105% -20%
IND 1.95 96% 2.15 106% -20%
DET 1.88 93% 2.15 106% -27%
GSW 2.05 101% 2.15 106% -10%
NYK 1.91 94% 2.16 107% -25%
WAS 1.85 91% 2.19 108% -34%
SAC 1.87 92% 2.19 108% -32%
LAC 1.81 89% 2.26 111% -45%
NJN 1.72 85% 2.33 115% -60%
MIN 1.73 85% 2.40 119% -68%
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