NBA Now Rankings Week #3 (including updated WP thru 11/16) and a Smackdown update

Posted on 11/16/2010 by

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As you can obviously tell, I’m more than a little distracted this week. A lot of things going on: new job, all the paperwork hassle of switching insurance,  new projects with Andres , the regular podcast , some old consulting projects that I need to close out in my own time before the end of the month and of course spending time with my lovely wife. However,  I appreciate you, my readers, and I’m going to make an effort to put up regular content in this space. I probably won’t hit everything I want, like say Henry Abbott on the 2006 draft although:

I wonder if Henry's a reader?

Besides I can usually count on  someone else in the WOW network to do it for me (thanks Devin!).

That said we’re going to keep it short, sweet and to the point (I need to sleep, after all).

If he can do it, I can too! (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

So here’s the rundown for Week Number 3. We’ll talk Smackdown, then rankings.

147 out of 1230 games are in the can or about 12% of the season. Sample sizes are starting to move rapidly away from small. Feel free to start jumping to some conclusions :-).

For those new here : Read the Basics if you’re new.

I am using  stats for the NBA as of 11/16/2010 (thanks be to Basketball Reference and the Automated Wins Produced site powered by NerdNumbers (and guaranteed to improve your life by 200%).

The Smackdown :

By now you know of the  Wages of Wins Network 2011 NBA Super Stat Geek Smackdown. I took all the predictions from this and added all the commenters from around the web(see below in a handy dandy table):

Then I took the raw wins predictions for each team combined it with the equation for home team winning I came up with for a single game (see here for detail). To put it simply:

Probability of Home team winning a game = (Projected Wins Home Team-Projected Wins Road Team)/82 +.606

Then I worked it out for every game so far as follows:

  • If W% is greater than 60% call it a strong Win (W) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 50% but less than 60% call it a weak Win (WW) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 40% but less than 50% call it a weak Loss (WL) for the home team
  • If W% is less than 40% call it a strong Loss (L) for the home team

I ranked each model them based on accuracy and also ranked them using a points system based on user comment as follows:

  • Assign a point per game called correctly
  • Assign an additional point for a strong call
  • Penalize 1 point for a miss.
So Far (updated thru 11/16/10), it looks like:
Take a bow reservoirgod still in first. The only other thing to say is : Simmons!!

Let’s get to the Rankings.

NBA Now Rankings Week #3

Heat are still number one. They have been underplaying their performance so far. This bodes ill for the rest of the league. Lakers stay at 2. Spurs and Hornets move up ( we’re not talking about CP3 or Duncan here though). The Celtics remain steady. Blazers and Magic fall.  The Bulls,Mavs and Suns move up.

The Hawks fall out of the top 10 as do the Nuggets and Warriors. Milwaukee and OKC seem to be recovering from early season swoons.

As for the bottom ten, the seasonal Knicks collapse seems to be underway.

The Picks

The Method for Evaluation

To evaluate how the predictions are doing, I take everyone’s raw wins predictions for each team and combine it with the equation for home team winning I came up with for a single game (see here for detail). To put it simply:

Probability of Home team winning a game (Win %)

= (Projected Wins Home Team-Projected Wins Road Team)/82 +.606

=Win %: (Proj. Home Team Win% – Proj. Road Team Win%) +HCA(.606)

Then I worked it out for every game so far as follows:

  • If W% is greater than 60% call it a strong Win (W) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 50% but less than 60% call it a weak Win (WW) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 40% but less than 50% call it a weak Loss (WL) for the home team
  • If W% is less than 40% call it a strong Loss (L) for the home team
  • I then look at everyone’s hit rate for strong predictions and for all predictions.
  • I rank each model/analyst for both
  • I assign points based on ranking (double points for strong predictions since I value those more)
Guy’s question goes to what hit rate means. It’s simply:
Hit Ratio (All): % of all games picked correctly by Win % (so for all 52 games this year)
Hit Ratio (Strong): % of all games were the win % is >60% or less than 40% picked correctly (on average about 33 games per model)
Based on that the results thru yesterday (46 games) looked like:

But I’m intrigued by Guy’s Request. If I:

  • Assign a point per game called correctly
  • Assign an additional point for a strong call
  • Penalize 1 point for a miss.
and redo the tables (updated thru 11/02/10), it looks like:
Take a bow reservoirgod. The WOW analysts are still leading the pack. The Sports Guy is moving up past the other models and Bobo is very angry.
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