Fanservice:Build Picks for 11/11 to 11/16

Posted on 11/11/2010 by

10



At the request of my readers, I’m just leaving this here:

Picks 11/11 to 11/16
Hteam Rteam Date Win % Home Team Prediction
GSW CHI 11/11/2010 56% WW
BOS MIA 11/11/2010 53% WW
LAL DEN 11/11/2010 77% W
UTA ATL 11/12/2010 60% W
HOU IND 11/12/2010 76% W
TOR ORL 11/12/2010 31% L
CHA WAS 11/12/2010 94% W
NYK MIN 11/12/2010 71% W
PHI DAL 11/12/2010 34% L
SAC PHO 11/12/2010 59% WW
POR OKC 11/12/2010 76% W
DET LAC 11/12/2010 64% W
ORL NJN 11/13/2010 74% W
UTA CHA 11/13/2010 69% W
IND CLE 11/13/2010 51% WW
TOR MIA 11/13/2010 16% L
POR NOH 11/13/2010 80% W
WAS CHI 11/13/2010 4% L
BOS MEM 11/13/2010 84% W
GSW MIL 11/13/2010 73% W
PHI SAS 11/13/2010 18% L
MIN ATL 11/14/2010 40% L
DET SAC 11/14/2010 40% WL
SAS OKC 11/14/2010 67% W
HOU NYK 11/14/2010 68% W
PHO LAL 11/14/2010 44% WL
MEM ORL 11/15/2010 45% WL
MIN CHA 11/15/2010 48% WL
NOH DAL 11/15/2010 66% W
DEN PHO 11/15/2010 60% W
OKC UTA 11/15/2010 72% W
DET GSW 11/15/2010 31% L
NJN LAC 11/15/2010 77% W
PHI CLE 11/16/2010 45% WL
ATL IND 11/16/2010 79% W
TOR WAS 11/16/2010 80% W
LAL MIL 11/16/2010 82% W
POR MEM 11/16/2010 96% W
CHI HOU 11/16/2010 78% W
NYK DEN 11/16/2010 48% WL

To explain, I took the raw wins predictions for each team (from my final preseason projection) combined it with the equation for home team winning I came up with for a single game (see here for detail). To put it simply:

Probability of Home team winning a game = (Projected Wins Home Team-Projected Wins Road Team)/82 +.606

Then I worked it out for every game so far as follows:

  • If W% is greater than 60% call it a strong Win (W) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 50% but less than 60% call it a weak Win (WW) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 40% but less than 50% call it a weak Loss (WL) for the home team
  • If W% is less than 40% call it a strong Loss (L) for the home team

The Rookies are next.

Note:Whoops! I flipped the Home and Road teams in my new automated table (Thanks CT for the catch).

Chicago Tim, this one's for you

The real prediction is :

Picks 11/ to 11/16
Hteam Rteam Date Win % Home Team Prediction
CHI GSW 11/11/2010 65% W
MIA BOS 11/11/2010 68% W
DEN LAL 11/11/2010 44% WL
ATL UTA 11/12/2010 61% W
IND HOU 11/12/2010 45% WL
ORL TOR 11/12/2010 90% W
WAS CHA 11/12/2010 28% L
MIN NYK 11/12/2010 50% WW
DAL PHI 11/12/2010 87% W
PHO SAC 11/12/2010 62% W
OKC POR 11/12/2010 45% WL
LAC DET 11/12/2010 57% WW
NJN ORL 11/13/2010 47% WL
CHA UTA 11/13/2010 52% WW
CLE IND 11/13/2010 70% W
MIA TOR 11/13/2010 105% W
NOH POR 11/13/2010 42% WL
CHI WAS 11/13/2010 117% W
MEM BOS 11/13/2010 38% L
MIL GSW 11/13/2010 48% WL
SAS PHI 11/13/2010 103% W
ATL MIN 11/14/2010 82% W
SAC DET 11/14/2010 81% W
OKC SAS 11/14/2010 54% WW
NYK HOU 11/14/2010 53% WW
LAL PHO 11/14/2010 77% W
ORL MEM 11/15/2010 76% W
CHA MIN 11/15/2010 73% W
DAL NOH 11/15/2010 55% WW
PHO DEN 11/15/2010 61% W
UTA OKC 11/15/2010 49% WL
GSW DET 11/15/2010 90% W
LAC NJN 11/15/2010 45% WL
CLE PHI 11/16/2010 76% W
IND ATL 11/16/2010 42% WL
WAS TOR 11/16/2010 42% WL
MIL LAL 11/16/2010 39% L
MEM POR 11/16/2010 26% L
HOU CHI 11/16/2010 43% WL
DEN NYK 11/16/2010 73% W
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