NBA Now Rankings Week #2 (including updated WP thru 11/09) and a Smackdown update

Posted on 11/10/2010 by

16



Time for Week number 2. Still on my wife’s computer so my productivity has taken a hit. It’s almost like the universe has it in for basic logic.

Again, draw you own conclusions(Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

 

The universe apparently doesn’t want you to have my rankings in a timely manner, complain to your local deity.

You know the drill. Read the Basics if you’re new. To properly rank Teams we need data but we don’t have a large enough sample size to do this as of yet so. So first we need the data from the Automated Wins Produced site for 2010-2011 so far (is powered by NerdNumbers)

I used stats for the NBA as of 11/09/2010. So the first part of the rankings is based on how everyone played so far, the second is based on my final preseason projection. Why should my preseason predictions hold any weight?Let’s talk Picks.

The Picks:

Take a look:

To explain, I took the raw wins predictions for each team combined it with the equation for home team winning I came up with for a single game (see here for detail). To put it simply:

Probability of Home team winning a game = (Projected Wins Home Team-Projected Wins Road Team)/82 +.606

Then I worked it out for every game so far as follows:

  • If W% is greater than 60% call it a strong Win (W) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 50% but less than 60% call it a weak Win (WW) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 40% but less than 50% call it a weak Loss (WL) for the home team
  • If W% is less than 40% call it a strong Loss (L) for the home team

I then did the math for all the models from the Wages of Wins Network 2011 NBA Super Stat Geek Smackdown and commenters across the web (see below).

I ranked them based on accuracy and also ranked them using a points system based on user comment as follows:

  • Assign a point per game called correctly
  • Assign an additional point for a strong call
  • Penalize 1 point for a miss.
So Far (updated thru 11/08/10), it looks like:
Take a bow reservoirgod still in first. The WOW analysts are still leading the pack but The Sports Guy has caught up to Rob. Bobo is now resigned.

Enough fun nerdplay. Let’s get to the Rankings.

NBA Now Rankings Week #2

And order is somewhat restored to the world with the Heat, Lakers and Magic 1,2,3. Blazers fall to 4 . Celtics, Hornets, Hawks and Nuggets move up and Spurs and Warriors move down to round out the top 10.

11-20 see the Knicks making a huge move to 13 with Rookie of the Year so far Landry Fields and the Thunder dropping ten to 17 on the back of lousy play at the 4/5 by anyone other than Serge Ibaka.

As for the bottom 10, the 76ers are frisky (or have they played a weak sched? we’ll see). The Nets so far are worse than what we thought (save us from the Murphy posts please) and the T-wolves are in the hunt for the most ping pong balls.

Kahn is bringing it (and hopefully not leaving whatever "it" is)

The Picks 

The Method for Evaluation

To evaluate how the predictions are doing, I take everyone’s raw wins predictions for each team and combine it with the equation for home team winning I came up with for a single game (see here for detail). To put it simply:

Probability of Home team winning a game (Win %)

= (Projected Wins Home Team-Projected Wins Road Team)/82 +.606

=Win %: (Proj. Home Team Win% – Proj. Road Team Win%) +HCA(.606)

Then I worked it out for every game so far as follows:

  • If W% is greater than 60% call it a strong Win (W) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 50% but less than 60% call it a weak Win (WW) for the home team
  • If W% is greater than 40% but less than 50% call it a weak Loss (WL) for the home team
  • If W% is less than 40% call it a strong Loss (L) for the home team
  • I then look at everyone’s hit rate for strong predictions and for all predictions.
  • I rank each model/analyst for both
  • I assign points based on ranking (double points for strong predictions since I value those more)
Guy’s question goes to what hit rate means. It’s simply:
Hit Ratio (All): % of all games picked correctly by Win % (so for all 52 games this year)
Hit Ratio (Strong): % of all games were the win % is >60% or less than 40% picked correctly (on average about 33 games per model)
Based on that the results thru yesterday (46 games) looked like:

But I’m intrigued by Guy’s Request. If I:

  • Assign a point per game called correctly
  • Assign an additional point for a strong call
  • Penalize 1 point for a miss.
and redo the tables (updated thru 11/02/10), it looks like:
Take a bow reservoirgod. The WOW analysts are still leading the pack.  The Sports Guy is moving up past the other  models and Bobo is very angry.
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