Comparing NBA Predictions across the web

Posted on 10/27/2010 by


Yesterday I posted the final Preseason Model and it was awesome. (If you’re new or got here while searching for kittens go here for the Basics behind it all).

Then Andrez Alvarez asked me to post the league projection as a poster and that was even more awesome.

Then reader Rashad asked:

Any chance you can do a post comparing your predicted wins with basketball reference’s?



My model is above. Let’s look at the other model

Since were all about the Fanservice, here goes. Basketball Reference did three set of projections. Some detail on what they did:

If I put it all in one table with my model it looks like:

The table shows my model, all three Basketball Reference Models, the absolute difference from their 3 models to mine and finally the average difference between my model and the +/- and WS models. Only 6 teams show a difference greater than 7 games. The Nuggets get killed by playing Harrington and injuries to their bigs. The Kings I like because of Dalambert and Cousins. The Wizards we’ve covered extensively. Golden State is the home of WP darlings. My love for the Bulls offseason moves is well documented as well. For the Magic, the model does not like the players they lost and much like raptors fans hates Vince Carter.

Rashad, hopefully that covers your request.

The Awesome Trifecta

Note: A smart reader (sportsfanatic613) caught a mistake and I corrected it. For the correction and more model comparing goodness go here.

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