2011 NBA Now Rankings and Predictions (Final Preseason Build)

Posted on 10/26/2010 by


“. . . be resolved that duty is heavier than a mountain, while death is lighter than a feather.”—First Precept of the Imperial Rescript to Japanese Soldiers and Sailors

Duty. That’s a heavy, heavy word. I made a promise to myself and to readers of this blog that I would build a model to forecast Win totals for the NBA season using Wins produced (go here for the Basics behind it all). There were a lot of factors to consider:

  • Projecting veteran player performance (the veteran model)
  • Projecting for rookies who played in college (the rookie model).
  • Projecting for everyone else using the preseason
  • Rosters, Minute allocations and Injuries (wait for it)
  • The difference between conferences (see here)

But I was not daunted. In fact I did a first simple build (NBA Now Team Rankings take 1) then added some complexity for version #2 . But now the season is upon us and time is running out.

Over already?

Picks are due. Let’s get on with it. This Version accounts for everything.

Yes, even the spanish inquisition.

The 2010-2011 Build Preseason Final (as of 10/25/10)

There are 435 players currently on NBA rosters. I’ve done projection (accounting for age,performance,injuries & depth charts) for 435 players. Every single one.  The full build is here.

Some notes:

  • Blake Griffin was adjusted to the high end of his projection based on his pre-season performance. Didn’t help the clippers much.
  • Durant and Westbrook were projected based on the last 41 games of last year.
  • I went high on CP3 minutes, low on Yao minutes based on the Rockets minutes restrictions, low on Oden and Aldridge minutes, I also gave Scalabrine playing time.

    Did you know he's now a Bull?

  • I used ShamSports combined with ESPN for depth charts. Some teams (I’m looking at you Indiana) was kinda like throwing darts at random.

The final preseason 2011 projection looks like this:

So with the Miller injury, Portland is my number one overall seed for the season and yes I am predicting the Wizards to win only ten games. Shocking I know :-).

I previously posted the win totals vs the lines (see here). Let’s update that now.

Do with that info what you will but the top 4 looks very inviting. Every team in green is also attractive (the rockets have keep away written all over them).

As for Awards picks? Here you go:

So now like Clippers fans, I can await the sweet release of death.  Enjoy, discuss, comment and as always:

DYI Snark. We're all about Fanservice

Oh and by the way:

Gimme a big C tonight

Note: I had to make a correction so final predictions are here

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