“Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel
Was just a freight train coming your way”-Metallica- No Leaf Clover
Chicago Bulls fans had to be feeling good this NBA off-season. They had good young players at the most critical positions (PG and Center). They didn’t quite hit their targets in the Free Agent Market but they did really well. They lost Pargo and Miller (a combined 2.5 losses in 2010) and brought in Boozer,Brewer, Thomas, Bogans, Watson and Kover ( who averaged 31.6 wins over the last three years). By my numbers their current lineup projects to 63 wins in 2011:
This is a very good team that will contend for a championship for many years to come. Then the freight train hit. The rumor that is leading the ESPN ticker. Carmelo for Noah & Deng . For the casual fan this seems like a no-brainer. Take Carmelo right? The spin is that Chicago needs Melo to contend with the Heat and Denver needs to salvage something for Melo before he leaves. But for the truly informed (which apparently includes the Nuggets front office) this trade destroys the Bulls chances and could completely alter the balance of power in the Western Conference.
Let’s switch tacks for a minute. Four leaf clover are a rare and prized variety of the more common three leaf clover. Estimates say that there’s one four leaf clover for every 10,000 three leaf clover. I’ve touched before on how good NBA Big men are like four leaf clovers (see here). Well, Joakim Noah is a very good big man. As a fun exercise I looked up and ranked every player drafted who’s played center a significant amount of minutes (>1500 MP as center in one of their first three years) using a methodology similar to that in my draft post (here). The list follows:
Of 114 players who classified, Noah came in tenth. Of all active centers through three years only Shaq and Howard were better. Let me repeat that, Shaq and Howard are the only two active centers who were better than Noah after three years. For the Bulls to consider this trade borders on the insane. For them to throw in Loul Deng, borders on the criminal.
Super Mega Faceplam
Just for grins let’s project the results of the following transactions. Bulls trade Noah and Deng to Denver for Carmelo Anthony (see here – PER likes this trade for the Bulls, god bless PER). Let’s also do what the Bleacher Report article I referenced before suggested and give them one of the available centers via free agency. I’m giving them Josh Boone or Brezec who’re healthy and available , Joel Przybilla is neither. Chicago then looks like this:
So from a projected 63 wins to 54 or 49 wins (depending on the new center) a loss of between 9 to 14 wins. And they’d add a guy who would get and not deserve max money in Carmelo. And this assumes Kurt Thomas’ performance doesn’t fall off a cliff and that Taj Gibson is nowhere near this deal.
As for the Nuggets?:
From about 51 wins to about 63. Quality size in every direction and to my estimation the number one seed in the West. This team would so good that it would take something massive to derail their postseason success.
Arturo's Silly Little Stats v2.0 
todd2
09/11/2010
and so much for the Noah/Horford controversy generated by Dickie V a few years ago…
Chicago Tim
09/11/2010
The good news: the rumors of trading Noah were overblown. It’s far more likely that the Bulls will sign Noah to a five-year, $60 million contract before Halloween. A great price if they can get it. Perhaps the trade rumor was some kind of negotiating ploy.
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/19807/melo-noah-swap-talk-premature
The bad news (for everyone not rooting for the Heat): “Pat Riley says Chalmers likely ready for camp, but not Butler. Hints strongly at casting Wade or LeBron at point guard.” Aaarrgh! Please get healthy, Butler!
Chicago Tim
09/11/2010
Here’s an even more definite statement from the Bulls: Noah’s not going anywhere.
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bulls/post/_/id/1589/noahs-not-going-anywhere
nerdnumbers
09/11/2010
Something I love about this is Lawson and Noah. Both had injuries last year. If they both could come back full strength. . . forget about it. I don’t think Noah is coming to Denver, but it is fun to dream. Thanks for indulging my birthday wish. Rose and Melo are two overhyped scorers who coukl “underperform again”. It would have a nice sense of irony and proof execs don’t learn from the past.
arturogalletti
09/11/2010
Andres,
Happy to Please. Sounds like Deng/Gibson picks for Melo is a more realistic offer though.
The Noah thing seems like a negotiation ploy. I couldn’t resist to address all the talking heads saying it’s a no-brainer though.
Man of Steele
09/12/2010
Arturo,
I liked the article, but I think you mistakenly had PROD48 listed under WP48 (Noah is good, but nobody has a .600 WP48). Contrariwise, I think you actually had Carmelo’s WP48 (.109), rather than his PROD48, as with every other player. The thesis of the article still stands, though, it just means that the difference isn’t quite as dramatic.
Keep the great posts coming. I really appreciate you looking at things from a GM’s point of view, rather than a fan’s point of view.
Man of Steele
09/12/2010
Sorry, I just can’t read the chart …
arturogalletti
09/12/2010
MOS,
Thanks for the kind words. I’m pretty sure it’s all right.
Chicago Tim
09/13/2010
Update regarding Miami’s point guard:
“NBA.com: Riley said you can expect to play some point guard.
“DW: I played plenty of point guard in my day. And LeBron as well. I’m sure we will. I’m sure Mike Miller will. Of course Mario Chalmers is our starting point guard and then we have Carlos Arroyo, but we will be guys who will handle the ball a lot and get us into the offense and make plays for the other guys.”
http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/steve_aschburner/09/13/dwyane-wade-qa/index.html
At least they haven’t mentioned Bosh at center, and DW is still calling Chalmers their starting point guard. Carlos Arroyo, get well soon!
sportsfanatic613
09/14/2010
Memphis(Conley), Oklahoma(Green), Milwaukee(Jianlian), Minnesota( Brewer), Goldenstate(Wright), and also the Knicks as the #9 pick belonged to the Knicks which Isiah traded in the Eddie Curry deal, should all be kicking themselves real hard for the next 10 years because they all could and should have had Noah. None of the other picks had such great college careers that would have given any evidence that they’d be such good pros. Noah had the best college career of all those guys and still six teams overlooked him. What were the teams draft teams thinking? We can understand Portland(Oden), Okalahoma(Durant) and can even give Atlanta(Horford) some slack, but the other picks, including Oklahoma drafting Green along with Durant (both are small forwards) need to do some evaluation of their scouting teams. Growing up and living in NY, I just can’t be a Bulls fan, but they’ve made all the right moves and deserve a lot of credit for building that team the proper way. Being that Noah is from New York, hurts even more.
Chicago Tim
09/14/2010
They were thinking Noah wasn’t a scorer, that’s what they were thinking. Usually team success in college leads to players being overrated in the draft, but maybe not for non-scorers.
arturogalletti
09/14/2010
I’m working on a couple of posts related to this. Noah had some very good college numbers.
google
12/07/2011
Curiously, a well written blog post!