Return of the NBA Free Agent Guide

Posted on 09/09/2010 by

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A long time ago, in a time known colloquially as August, this blogger used  to write an NBA free agent update. Given that I was feeling nostalgic after watching some 30 for 30 last night (“Jordan rides the Bus”),  I decided to go back to that better, less math intensive time (you know what I mean)  and update the Free Agent Guide (also I really had to do this before doing the Celtics and Lakers playoff review).

This took place more than 19 Years Ago. Is that Nostalgia or disbelief?

So here it is : The return of the table that wouldn’t die, the 2010 NBA free agent update.

Rev 6,7? Who knows, I lost count and much like Jason you know it'll be back

As was done last time,with two scorecards:

  • The first (winners and losers) rates the summer FA activity for the Team (no trades,that will come later). So if your team had a bad ETO that stayed on the cap your had a bad summer (right Philly).
  • The second is the automated scorecard, where we take out the ETOs and the player options. Two scorecards are double the fun.

And with two sets of evaluations:

  • The first is my passionate perspective
  • The second is a straightforward & systemic analysis of the numbers (an automated scorecard).

The updated Free Agent Guide is here. As before, the first table includes all player options, restricted and unrestricted free agents and all players with ridiculous ETO’s  that did not exercise (like Jason Kapono). The second is all about voluntary decisions and dispassionate logic.

Logic

Updated Winners & Losers

Here’s my quick table on winners and losers. Top 10 in green, next ten in yellow and everyone else in red :

My Quick Thoughts & Grades by Team (the heart’s part) :

The order for the teams is based on the value over market.

  1. Miami: Since my first review their roster actually improved. 14 players for about $76 million per year that netted an average of 78 wins per year for the last three years. Again, wow,just wow. The haters really need to recognize. Rememeber Lebron is taking mental notes. My Grade: Eleventy

    Did I just make the list?

  2. Chicago: The Bulls did not get exactly what they wanted but they still massively upgraded. Chicago went four out of six (Korver is marginal). 6 players for about $32 million per year that netted an average of 32 wins per year for the last three years. Sadly it looks like they might screw it up by going for Noah for Melo making Chicago Tim sad and Andres very happy.  My Grade: B- for even considering a Melo deal
  3. Detroit: Detroit kept Ben Wallace and four of their current players. They may add T-mac cheap. That’s real forward looking. 5 players for about $10.5 million per year that netted an average of 17 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B for good value but not enough
  4. Boston: Moving on up in the world. The Delonte West signing is inspired.I heart Pierce & Allen but they sure are creaky but Allen should get some rest from the West signing. Love me some pocket kryptonite. Jermaine O’Neal? They’re gambling on him being productive as PF I think but it’s a gamble.  The Rondo deal (again not counted in the total as it happened in-season) & Shaq at the veteran Minimum adds to the positive. The thought here I think is that Boston with this bunch should be able to find six good to great players on their roster come playoff to match up to the Heat.  7 players for about $40.2 million per year that netted an average of 31 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B for Gambling in Beantown.
  5. Phoenix: Classic Suns pantsing the league on Childress and cutting payroll. Adding Warrick as well more than replaces the value lost when Amare left.  The only reason I withhold an A is Frye. Looking at their roster they may not be done yet. 4 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 19 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B+ for now
  6. Golden State : A forum on whether or not you like David Lee. Dorell Wright is good. Pargo is very,very,very,very bad . 4 players for about $19.2 million per year that netted an average of 18 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B-, no selection bias here but really Pargo?!?!?
  7. Orlando: The Magic keep bringing in average (.100 WP48 players). Great for the regular season not so much for the playoff.  4 players for about $13.6 million per year that netted an average of 15 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for not doing enough to win a title
  8. Lakers: As a Celtics fan, #$#%% #@%@@!!!! And they stole a guy in the 2nd round of the draft (Caracter who they just signed @#@$@@@@$@#!!!$!$!%%@^@^). The Kobe deal (not included on the list as it happened in-season) could be the turd in the punch bowl in the future. The Shannon Brown deal is a rare misstep this off-season.  5 players for about $13 million per year that netted an average of 13 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A- but here’s a to Kobe’s offseason for Laker fans enjoy
  9. Houston: Better than it looks. Yao re-upping for one year is worth a hundred million easy to that franchise. 6 players for about $47 million per year that netted an average of 33 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A- (I’d forgotten Jared Jeffries came with two Knick #1’s)
  10. Portland: Matthews is good but they need minutes for him. 2 players for about $14 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: Incomplete pending whatever trade they make.
  11. Cleveland :Pretty much no one is walking through that door. Blow it up and build through the draft. 2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: E for bad times on Lake Erie
    Gee Dan, I wonder why no one wants to come play for us?

  12. Knicks: New York deserves and will get their own post. I will say that by breaking even they lapped the regime of Lord Thomas. They were doing so well and then they went to a past best left forgotten.  4 players for about $30 million per year that netted an average of 19 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D- (C for the moves, -15 for Isiah, they passed but barely.) Go here for the full review
    Party Truck Anyone?

  13. Washington : Same as Cleveland,pretty much no one is walking through that door. Dan Gilbert take note, this team has already blown it up and is building through the draft. 1 players for about $4 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B because the first step is to accept that we are powerless
  14. Toronto:Meh. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D for doubt they’ll make the playoffs
  15. San Antonio: Love the Splitter deal at a minimum it gives them flexibility and saves Duncan for the playoffs at a maximum it sets them up for a dogfight with OKC and the Lakers for the West crown for the next few years. Don’t like the Jefferson deal.3 players for about $17 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B for split returns
  16. Clippers : A lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. 4 players for about $11.6 million per year that netted an average of 6 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for same old Clippers
  17. Utah : Didn’t this team move to Chicago?  2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: F for abseentism
  18. OKC : Not a lot done. Presti thinks he has a good hand. Flipped players for picks.1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years  My Grade: We will C about Cole
  19. Pacers : Actually Larry legend is about to turn this around . TJ Ford looks gone and Collison and Posey are is a good pickups (and just for the hell of it, Larry Bird is the greatest player ever) . 1 players for about $8.5 million per year that netted an average of 4 wins per year for the last three years  My Grade: L for The legend moves in mysterious ways.
    You were expecting an excuse to post this?

  20. Kings : Anytime you can bring in a defensive stopper from one of the worst defensive teams in the league you gotta do it right? 1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of -1 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: MalooF
  21. Charlotte: Sneaky. Young above average PF on the cheap (Thomas). Could be good but they need to start him. Shaun Livingston gives them an A for me. Kwame for the minimum is a good deal.  3 players for about $18 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A for Air
  22. Nets: Throwing some good money after bad. They’re getting a new GM though 7 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 12 wins per year for the last three years.My Grade: C- comrade
  23. Minnesota:KHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3 players for about $10 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years.   Grade: F+ (See it’s a little better). I was going to put a Free Love image up but let’s keep it PG
  24. Atlanta : Question, what Free Agent contracts were signed that were immediately untradeable? Answer: Joe Johnson & Rudy Gay. 3 players for about $23 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years.  Grade: Z for Zombie franchise killer contracts.
  25. Denver: Meh again. 4 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years.  My Grade: D
  26. Dallas: Cuban seem to delight at paying full price on day old cheese. Yes it tastes good now but pretty they’re past the expiration date. Cuban needs that Time Machine. 5 players for about $45.1 million per year that netted an average of 21 wins per year for the last three years.  Grade: D for Dirk is Dissapoint
  27. Memphis: At least Atlanta got some wins out of the deal. 2 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years.   Grade: Omega
  28. Milwakee: Sneaky. Makes a good team, slightly better and deeper. Fell some Anxiety about the Deer! The Redd contract is the unavoidable turd in the punch bowl.  5 players for about $35 million per year that netted an average of 12 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D+ for the Deer but fear not they’ll do better later
  29. 76ers : The Sixers payed good money to get worse. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of -4 wins per year for the last three years.   My Grade: Divide by zero
  30. Hornets: Did you know the Saints won the Super Bowl? 3 players for about $22 million per year that netted an average of 2 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: H for Hopeless Hornets (see here for my take on trade,let me just warn you the Hornets do poorly)

    Who Dey

Automated Scorecard (with clear eyes):

Now we come to the automated scorecard. Here I’m letting the numbers do the talking. I ‘m looking at net wins acquired and how much was paid per win. I am only looking at voluntary decisions by team management (i.e no ETO’s or Player Options). I am normalizing for wins & paid (while treating Miami  as an outlier (or the grades get ridiculous)) and adding the scores. I then rank the teams by score and use percentile to score them. The automated rankings look like this:

And the differences look like this:

Miami remains numbers one but Houston steals number two (and if  someone can convince Scola he’s playing for Argentina in Houston ,watch out!). The numbers & stats love Cuban (which is totally unsurprising and fitting) & Morey to a lesser extent. The other big gainers are Denver (to the middle of the pack), and the Deer to number 18. As for who were the the big losers?  Utah and Indians make perfect sense as the big droppers (abstaining and paying for nothing are not popular). Portland however is due to excel being confused by Wesley Matthews and this potential thing.

I hope that this post makes everyone happy and nostalgic . This is an early post as I thought I’d check if there’s any sports on my TV tonight .

Note: Official Assistant GM of this Blog, Devin pointed out some mistakes that I’ve now corrected.Good job Devin. Feel free to name a post you’d like to see.

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Posted in: NBA Free Agency