30 to 16 to 1: A Half Baked Review of the NBA Playoffs

Posted on 07/30/2010 by


30 to 16. When looking at the NBA, we typically focus our energy on what happens in the regular season to turn thirty regular season teams  into 16 playoff teams. This is perfectly understandable but I believe it misses the point somewhat.

16 to 1. The true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, there is some real meat to the half-baked notion that what gets you from 30 to 16 is not what gets you from 16 to 1.

A Half-Baked Analysis of the 2010 Playoffs

My intent is to use take my half baked notions and analyze the 2010 NBA playoffs Four Teams at a time. Just what are these notions? Simple (based on 2010 numbers):

  • The best two players accounted for 55% of a teams wins in the 2010 Playoffs.
  • The top three players are just below the pareto threshold
  • The next three (4,5,6th man) account for the rest of the positive win contribution about equally.
  • After that everybody else actually hurt teams in the playoffs.

The format will look at the best six players in the playoffs for each team, will look at how many wins their coach/injuries might have cost them and talk about their opportunities/drawbacks going forward (and if they’ve done anything in the off-season to address these). We will go from least productive to most productive team in the Playoff (based on the table that follows now):

As a bonus we’ll do the first review now.

An Early Tee time for Michael

  • The Storyline: The Charlotte Bobcats joined the league for the 2004-2005 season and in their sixth season finally joined the playoff dance. They didn’t do much but at least they made it which is more than can be said by the Knicks.
  • The Good: Gerald Wallace and Tyrus Thomas performed at superstar level in the playoffs. There’s some real hope there.
  • The Bad: Everyone else really stunk. The hope should really be tempered.
  • The Coach: Larry Brown really should have played Thomas more and His team should have won at least one game. By my numbers he did the worst at any coach in the playoffs at getting the most out of his players.
  • Needs: At least three more average or above average players
  • Major Moves: Lost Chandler and Felton. Added the Dallas pu-pu platter.
  • 2011 Outlook: slugfest for the 8th seed. 1st round loss. Lots of shots of Lebron, Wade & Bosh whooping it up on the bench

Tomorrow we’ll do the next three teams

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