Posted on 07/23/2010
by Arturo Galletti
Reader Jimbo Comments in the last draft post:
“Arturo – love the work of wages of wins and the network. I was a little suprised to see my favourite player Manu Ginobili so low on the list, and I think I’ve figured out why – the “average” WP scores for the 57th pick are the 2nd highest in the table (ie only the no. 1 pick has higher average WP scores). I’m guessing this is because not many of the 57th picks actually play enought to be included, and Manu is distorting the average to the high end.
Could you re-run Manu’s numbers against the lowest average WP scores for any of the draft picks ahead of no. 57, and see where that puts him ?
I realise it’s probably a lot of work, but he’s being ranked far too low in my opinion.
As you know, we here at Arturo’s Silly little stats believe in taking requests, fan service and going the extra mile for prematurely balding, hispanic, basketball players whose last name start with a G. This is particularly true when the reader in question has a point. Late draft picks like Manu are being penalized in our average WP48 because not every player drafted plays in the NBA. How do we correct for this?
Looking at every draft pick we can see that the average minutes played for all those who played in the NBA is 983 minutes per season (trust me on this one). So if we round to a 1000 and place a hard cap on minutes based on this for our average wp48 per pick we should be fair to late gems like Manu.
To give an example let’s look at the 57th pick:
10 Players drafted at 57 Played in the NBA
19341 MP in their 1st 4 Years
60 Wins Produced
If I put in a a hard cap on minutes at 1000 MP * 4 Years * 30 Picks =120,000 MP
.149 WP48 becomes .024 and Manu jumps from to 43rd to 27th on the list.
Here’s the updated Table.
You’ll note that as a bonus I’ve added all the numbers for draftees thru one year (using the same hard minute cap for WP48) to look at inmediate impact players. You’ll note that I have to go to 40th (Josh Smith, Dwight Howard is at 58) to find an impact rookie who was less than 20 years old. The top twenty-five looks like this:
There are more than a few surprising names for me on that list (all in red). Clark Kellogg is a name that is as out of place on that list as the picture below in this post.
It's totally unrelated to this discussion but it reminds me of my dog.
Next up a post on the Worst Team since the merger.
This is great data and great work, Arturo. The 1000 minute cap is a good change, reducing a major bias that artificially “flattens” the pick:WP48 curve. I think one more step would further reduce bias, which is including players with fewer than 1600 minutes (capped at 1000) when you calculate the average performance at each pick. While those samples are too small to evaluate individual players, and so are properly excluded when evaluating individual picks, they are still valid data in the aggregate, adding 10,000s of minutes and providing a more accurate read on the average performance/ability at each pick.
I’m not excluding anybody currently from the averages just from the final table.
Great. I missed that. So maybe a new table (getting greedy now) showing the average WP48 per pick?
We can build on this. With the cap built in?
Time to update the Free Agent Guide. Move Matt Barnes from Toronto to L.A., at a much lower price.
I haven’t seen exact figures for Kurt Thomas on the Bulls, yet, but I’m excited about reports that it’s near the league minimum for one year with a team option for a second year. Is McGrady next?
I’ll get it posted in a few. Actually working right now 😉
Go easy on Kellogg, he was one of four 20-10 guys his rookie season. The others being Malone, Bird and Cummings (not Pat) if memory serves. He was a poor man’s Earvin Johnson that did a little bit of everything who had the misfortune of blowing his knee out and playing for a miserable team.
I was just surprised to see his name on that list. He’s one of those guys who probably has a longer career now with medical advances. He’s Troy Murphy before Troy
[…] I originally had a long post on the Worst Team since the merger but events and a computer crash have forced me to delay that for this weekend. However, I have a goal. 365 days, 365 posts. To that end I will move up a post on answering some followups from my draft posts ( here and here) […]
[…] Fan Service, More Draft Fun and 1st Year Impact Rookies […]
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