Fan Service, More Draft Fun and 1st Year Impact Rookies

Posted on 07/23/2010 by

10



Reader Jimbo Comments in the last draft post:

“Arturo – love the work of wages of wins and the network. I was a little suprised to see my favourite player Manu Ginobili so low on the list, and I think I’ve figured out why – the “average” WP scores for the 57th pick are the 2nd highest in the table (ie only the no. 1 pick has higher average WP scores). I’m guessing this is because not many of the 57th picks actually play enought to be included, and Manu is distorting the average to the high end.

Could you re-run Manu’s numbers against the lowest average WP scores for any of the draft picks ahead of no. 57, and see where that puts him ?

I realise it’s probably a lot of work, but he’s being ranked far too low in my opinion.

Thanks, James.”

As you know, we here at Arturo’s Silly little stats believe in taking requests, fan service and going the extra mile for prematurely balding, hispanic, basketball players whose last name start with a G. This is particularly true when the reader in question has a point. Late draft picks like Manu are being penalized in our average WP48 because not every player drafted plays in the NBA. How do we correct for this?

Looking at every draft pick we can see that the average minutes played for all those who played in the NBA is 983 minutes per season (trust me on this one). So if we round to a 1000 and place a hard cap on minutes based on this for our average wp48 per pick we should be fair to late gems like Manu.

To give an example let’s look at the 57th pick:

10 Players drafted at 57 Played in the NBA

19341 MP in their 1st 4 Years

60 Wins Produced

.149 WP48

If I put in a a hard cap on minutes at 1000 MP * 4 Years * 30 Picks =120,000 MP

.149 WP48 becomes .024 and Manu jumps from  to 43rd to 27th on the list.

Here’s the updated Table.

You’ll note that as a bonus I’ve added all the numbers for draftees thru one year (using the same hard minute cap for WP48) to look at inmediate impact players. You’ll note that I have to go to 40th (Josh Smith, Dwight Howard is at 58) to find an impact rookie who was less than 20 years old. The top twenty-five looks like this:

  1. Michael Jordan
  2. David Robinson
  3. Larry Bird
  4. Arvydas Sabonis
  5. Buck Williams
  6. Chris Paul
  7. Magic Johnson
  8. Marques Johnson
  9. Nate McMillan
  10. Larry Smith
  11. Shaquille O’Neal
  12. Jeff Ruland
  13. Brevin Knight
  14. Charles Barkley
  15. Dean Garrett
  16. Terry Cummings
  17. Andre Iguodala
  18. Clark Kellogg
  19. Tim Duncan
  20. Cedric Maxwell
  21. Charles Oakley
  22. Carlos Boozer
  23. DeJuan Blair
  24. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
  25. Mark Jackson

There are more than a few surprising names for me on that list (all in red). Clark Kellogg is a name that is as out of place on that list as the picture below in this post.

It's totally unrelated to this discussion but it reminds me of my dog.

Next up a post on the Worst Team since the merger.

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