Fact checking the ESPN ticker

Posted on 07/08/2010 by

2



“Computer Simulation projects Heat to go 66-16 next season (No.1 Seed in the East) Chances of winning NBA title:35.3 pct (60 pct with home court advantage) (Simulation based on Roster of James,Wade,Bosh, Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers, with bench equivalent to 9th or 10th men on typical NBA roster)”

This golden nugget of analysis was flashing on my Television screen just begging to be taken apart and fact checked and I’m definitely up to the challenge.

  1. Roster of James,Wade,Bosh, Michael Beasley and Mario ChalmersThat’s 55.7 wins. But there are still 7055 minutes to give out.
  2. Bench equivalent to 9th or 10th men on typical NBA roster

From Andres Alvarez Data, here’s the average value for 9th or 10th men (by Minutes Played) from 2006 thru 2010

866.8     Minutes

0.049     WP48

0.98        Wins

So the Full roster would look like:

That, my friends is a championship contender barring injury. And I am definitely going crazy from the Heat.

Edit:

After I wrote the post the Heat salary dumped Beasley to Minn. This actually makes the Heat potentially better. Avg 9th or 10th man gives you a higher wp48 than Beasley (.049 vs .042). If you get a .042 Center and move Bosh to PF at least Part-time? The numbers get ridiculous.

Edit Number 2:

It’s over man, It’s freakin over:

God help everyone in the league if they sign a center who wants a ring (say oh, I don’t know, Shaq) to the minimum.

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