Defense Adjust Wins Produced(1st Pass)

Posted on 07/05/2010 by

17



This is meant as a quick post. I just took a quick pass at calculating Wins Produced adjusted by Individual defense.The main driver for this post is that David Lee is a bad defensive player and his wins produced are inflated

All numbers are taken from 82 games.com

First off some math explanations:

Full detail here

WP48 = PlayersProductivity(PROD48)– MATE48(Team Blk & Asst Adjustment)-DEFTM48 (Defensive Team Adjust)-RelAdjP48(Average of the first three terms for players playing the same position) +.099

The main term that could be said to drive defensive error is RelAdjP48 (the position adjustment). This term assumes that the player in question is facing average production at his position every night. This is very obviously not the case. Good defensive players can tend to be undervalued in our analysis. By calculating the Prod48 for a players average opponent we should be able to adjust for a players good or bad defensive skills. Given the rush nature of this exercise, I used the Celtics  as a baseline to assure total wins produced remained the same. I ended up with an adjusted position adjustment equal to my calculated WP48 for the average opponent +.07. When I have the time to complete the entire league for 2009-2010, I will refine the adjustment

Here’s my adjusted table for a few players of Note. Of the players I looked at here’s the ten best defenders:

  1. Kevin Durant
  2. Dirk Nowitzki
  3. LeBron James
  4. Dwyane Wade
  5. Kobe Bryant
  6. Dwight Howard
  7. Carmelo Anthony
  8. Brandon Roy
  9. Gerald Wallace
  10. Derrick Rose

Of note, Pau Gasol is a perfectly average defender. Of the Players who might be  involved in transactions that I looked at:

Joe Johnson & Amare are both better than average defenders. As for David Lee? He’s the worst in that list above but the story is not quite that simple. 82games claims that he used 72% of the Knicks minutes at C and only 3% at PF. If I work out his opponent’s numbers by position:

PosAdj_P48                     Actual OppAdjP48 (PF)                    Actual OppAdjP48 (C)

David Lee 0.406                                   0.307                                                           0.519

He is clearly a much better defender as a power forward than as a Center. A sign and trade to a team with a true center (say the Phoenix Suns) would benefit him greatly.

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