Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/25/2011

Posted on 05/26/2011 by

10



I pretty much told you so.

OKC was not coming back from the Game 5 Collapse.

Particularly when Dirk Nowitski has officially become the third player in my lifetime who I’m stunned when he misses in the last 5 minutes of a game (Bird, Jordan and now Dirk).

Let’s start with the series wrap first:

Kidd and Harden are the team MVP’s for the series by the numbers but the numbers don’t quite tell the tale for Dirk. We have to consider the fact that if Collison had popped Dirk with a hockey stick to the head as he was going for a Layup there’s a better than 50% chance he’d have gotten called for the charge.

Russell Westbrook did kill OKC but let’s get some perspective. He carried them against LA last Year. He’s a 22 year old point guard who looked inexperienced against Jason Kidd and made some dumb calls. He’ll figure it out soon enough

Let’s get to it.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Mavs-Thunder Game 5




Five years ago, if you told me on of the the Seven Seconds or Less Suns would help lead the Mavs back to the Finals, Shawn Marion would not have been my first choice. It took a team effort for the Mavs to get it done as the Thunder played a complete game (except for the insanity with Maynor waving everybody off to go ISO on Dirk but at this point with a Scotty Brooks team that the rule not the exception).

Congrats to the Matrix for getting to his first Finals.

For some reason this came to mind.

Should have, Would have, Could have.....

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