Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/23/2011

Posted on 05/24/2011 by

6



I feel like I should be writing a series wrap-up.

OKC was up 15 with five minutes left and then their best player fouled out.

Starting to Remind me of Manu (and I mean that in a good/bad way)

And then it became Dirk time.

German Assassin

Dirk, Kidd and Marion on D. The Thunder got pantsed by the Mavs.

I was mad at the refs after the last game that Dirk was getting mugged by Collison every time he had the ball. Dirk however adjusted and went completely medieval on the poor sod.

To channel Charles Barkley, this one is over. Dallas is going back to the Finals.

Let’s get to it.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Mavs-Thunder Game 4


Surprisingly, it was Dallas’ other first ballot hall of famer that was the MVP of the game. Kidd owned Russell.  Durant continued to show but losing Harden crippled the Thunder.  The Thunder were up 99-84 when he fouled out. They lost 112-105 (on a 28-6 run).

The story for the series so far:


Missing your best player is death in a close game as the Thunder found out.

As a final bonus here’s the total numbers for Round 3 so far (for every player sorted by Wins Produced and ranked by categories for all players with >15 MP per game):


Russell is Killing OKC.

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