Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/21/2011

Posted on 05/22/2011 by

2



“My first thought was: I knew it, I’m not going to say there was a conspiracy. I just think something wasn’t right. It was unfair. We didn’t have a chance to win that game.”

Kings center Scott Pollard upon hearing Tim Donaghy’s allegation of fixing Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals

I think Mr.Camping forgot to carry a five somewhere


The world didn’t end and I was totally stoked for this game.

Then the NBA went and ruined it,

I love the NBA. I’m also the guy who’s written extensively about Home Court Advantage.

But this game? A freaking travesty. It called up memories  (bad ones) of the Kings and Lakers in 2002.

According to the Boxscore this was a clean play.

Outside of a wrestling angle, I hate feeling the fix was in, but that’s what I felt tonight.

The NBA doesn’t seem to realize we all have DVR’s . I can rewind every single play and rewatch it in slow motion. If the calls are completely bogus it’s very easy to confirm. When that happens the league loses credibility.

In the end, the better team won (even if it felt like they were playing 8 on 5) and Nick Collison had won the immunity challenge.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Mavs-Thunder Game 3


I’m so annoyed at the refs that it’s going to be hard for me to be objective. Bear with me.

Tyson Chandler was a killer out there. Kidd and Marion had flashback games. Dirk seemed to be the victim of a coordinated act of assault between the refs and Nick Collison. Collison took advantage of the situation like a saavy defender and with Durant led the Thunder.  Harden had an off game for him (although his flopping was stellar). Russ just seems to be lost out there (as he has been all season against the Mavericks).

Dallas looked like the better team all night. Given that they won this sideshow, I now like them in 5 not 7.

So far these playoffs have been epic.

A visual summary (Image courtesy of http://www.bouncex3.com/)

The league needs to check itself and not insert themselves to keep it that way.

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