For fun this year the Wages of Wins Network cloned the True Hoop Stat Smackdown to see who could predict the playoff outcomes best. The rules are pretty simple: before each round you pick the round winner. You get 5 points if you guess the winner and you get an extra two points if you pick the number of games the winner will take to dispatch their opponent. We added a small variation. At the start of each round the Wages of Wins Network predicts the winners for every remaining round. If you leave a pick alone you get two extra points and if you leave your Finals Winner alone you get a bonus four points (of course none of this comes into play in the first round) Well we’re midway through the second round, so we should catch you up to date.
- Arturo of Arturo’s Silly Little Stats A die hard Celtic’s fan that uses the numbers mostly to his advantage
- Alex of Sport’s Skeptic Another numbers Guru who likes modeling the NBA, NHL and NFL with Nintendo pet named models.
- Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers A Piston’s fan with a shrewd eye for management.
- Devin of NBeh? A Raptor’s fan that has been doing his best to inform Canada of advanced stats.
- Dre of Nerd Numbers: A Nuggets fan, who is possibly entering free agency, that loves posting numbers to the web.
- Ian Levy of Hickory-High: A finder of truth and a fan of the Indiana Pacers.
- Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index: A Dwyane Wade and by proxy Miami Heat fan. He does his best to keep mainstream writers in check.
Round 1 Wrap Up
With the exclusion of an insane analyst that thought Portland and Denver would win the Wages of Wins Network is pretty up a pretty good fight. Ben Morris of Skeptical Sports is in first by a thin margin in large part due to his ability to pick the correct number of games. The Wages of Wins Analysts should be proud with four of us jockeying for 2nd place and in easy striking distance of first.
Getting In Trouble with Arturo
When Arturo sent me the charts and graphs he included a row for his probabilistic model. I’m going to be a rude judge and say that in terms of competing you get one horse in this race. As Arturo showed the results and then added his own take on the model’s picks that is what I am going to “judge” him on. With that said though had Arturo trusted his numbers in round 1 here’s how it would have looked.
Round 2 Overview
Here’s how the Wages of Wins Network looks and this is where it gets interesting!
Any place there is an * is where the analyst left there pick alone. If that team wins the analyst gets a bonus two points. We see a familiar story with Arturo calling Dallas’ victory against the entire field. Luckily Arturo chose to stick with his model’s numbers and not make any changes for his picks. Unless Los Angeles storms back Arturo will be looking very good to close out this round. Ian has also picked against the field calling for a Celtics win. If either Ian or Arturo is right then it will be a huge boost to them. On the whole though the analysts stuck with the favorite in each series. Devin, last rounds best guesser at number of games has picked 6 for each series. We’ll see!
We’ll keep you posted and we’ll see if the competition stays as tight in the second round.