Does the Schedule matter and Preseason Wins Produced as of 10/19/2010

Posted on 10/20/2010 by


No plan of action survives first contact with the enemy-Moltke’s Theory of War

So I was all set to do a full post on strength of schedule. I went to Basketball Reference and downloaded every game played last season. I made a table of last years schedule (click to enlarge).

I worked out the raw productivity of each team for 2009-2010 (go here for the Basics if you’re new here) :

I then worked out the schedule adjustments, made them to the predicted Wins produced for each team ran the correlation and found out accounting for strength of schedule made absolutely no statistically significant difference in the model (that wasn’t already captured). Damn. There’s an hour of my life I’ll never get back.

So as consolation to my readers, I decided to post preseason wins produced numbers. Full Table is here. Top 25 below. Enjoy

Blake Griffin is good (and so is Kevin Love but we knew that already). Jeff Adrien is a big surprise and may be a huge steal. Carmelo is playing motivated (he’s done it before when it doesn’t matter). Allen & the sexy mf himself (West) rocking it for the Celts at the 2. That said keep in mind it’s only the preseason.



Blake Griffin is really,really good.

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