Before we get our first look at the Automated Wins Produced site for 2010-2011, I decided that I was going to work out all the Wins Produced numbers (the Basics are here) for the season so far. I will caution that all these numbers are preliminary (the position adjustment is estimated) and from a very… [Read more…]
October 31, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Saavik: Permission to speak freely, sir? Kirk: Granted. Saavik: I do not believe this was a fair test of my command abilities. Kirk: And why not? Saavik: Because… there was no way to win. Kirk: A no-win situation is a possibility every commander may face. Has that never occurred to you? Saavik: No, sir, it… [Read more…]
October 30, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“See, there were these two guys in a lunatic asylum… and one night, one night they decide they don’t like living in an asylum any more. They decide they’re going to escape! So, like, they get up onto the roof, and there, just across this narrow gap, they see the rooftops of the town, stretching… [Read more…]
October 29, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Since this space seems to be getting some eyeballs, I’ve decided that I’m going to add a weekly feature where I point you to some of the awesome work going on around the Wages of Wins Network. So without further ado, WOW links of the week: First off is Ty Willihnganz at Courtside Analysist. I… [Read more…]
October 28, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. ~Albert Einstein A while back, I gave you, my readers, homework with the implicit understanding that there would be a reckoning. A reckoning that takes the form of my next series. Hopefully, it’ll live up to it’s predecessors. So get ready, because here comes the… [Read more…]
October 28, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Anyone can err, but only the fool persists in his fault — Marcus Tullius Cicero, Philippica XII, ii, 5 So reader sportsfanatic613 points out: I love this work. Thank you so much. Currently, my question is why Nene (Hilario) does not seem to be included on the Denver Nuggets roster. I didn’t think that he… [Read more…]
October 27, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Yesterday I posted the final Preseason Model and it was awesome. (If you’re new or got here while searching for kittens go here for the Basics behind it all). Then Andrez Alvarez asked me to post the league projection as a poster and that was even more awesome. Then reader Rashad asked: Any chance you… [Read more…]
October 26, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
So, friend of the blog, Andrez Alvarez asks: Your entire player ranking thing is too cool. I feel it was hidden in your article. IMO that could be it’s own post. Done and done. Enjoy. Note: I updated this to make it more readable and sorted by final minute projections. Click to see full size.
October 26, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“. . . be resolved that duty is heavier than a mountain, while death is lighter than a feather.”—First Precept of the Imperial Rescript to Japanese Soldiers and Sailors Duty. That’s a heavy, heavy word. I made a promise to myself and to readers of this blog that I would build a model to forecast… [Read more…]
October 26, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
So the model for every player is finished. Checking all the minute projections for depth and injuries. Predicition coming tomorrow. Here’s the top 30 projected by WP48 for the Year : And here’s a cool comic that reminded me of one of my old jobs:
October 25, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; For want of a shoe, the horse was lost; For want of a horse, the rider was lost; For want of a rider, the battle was lost; For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail. -Proverb… [Read more…]
October 24, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
So, I’ve been working on the model, a team review and my next series all day and I haven’t had the time to pull a full post together. I did throw together a nice table on preseason numbers for rookies and I thought people might get a kick out of it: If I look at… [Read more…]
October 23, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Kittens. I noticed something strange yesterday when looking at the site stats. See here: So people are winding up at my homepage while looking for cute kitty pictures. Longtime readers know where all about the fanservice, so welcome and here goes: And getting back somewhat on topic: Now getting back to basketball, Here are the… [Read more…]
October 23, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
A lot of posts this week. More coming tomorrow. I wanted to throw something short up with some recommended reading on inefficiency: First go read this bit of an attempt at analysis: How can Carmelo Possibly be inefficient? Then read Nerdnumbers (Andres Alvarez) response: http://nerdnumbers.wordpress.com/2010/10/22/the-2011-stat-smackdown-has-picks/ Staying on topic, read’s Ty at Courtside Analyst’s take on… [Read more…]
October 22, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
In the comments in my previous post, reader & commenter extraordinaire some dude (who’s a Lakers fan but we forgive him) wrote: Kings, Clips, W’s all got better in the west IMO. Only team above NOH that definitely got worse is Phx. I maintain Houston is better now that Yao is back, though your model… [Read more…]
October 21, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“The Mardi Gras memories Of creole tunes that filled the air I dream of oleanders in June And soon I’m wishing that I was there” -Do You Know What It Means to Miss New Orleans A cross cultural melting pot with awesome food. A Colonial city with old world charm and kicking music. It’s no… [Read more…]
October 21, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
So I’m working on a lengthy analysis at work, a team review for Professor Berri (think freedom) and my next (and hopefully great) series (Andres already got a preview). So a short post for today. First the best available Free Agents (yes , I know some of these guys are retired): Dampier and Fazekas… [Read more…]
October 20, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
No plan of action survives first contact with the enemy-Moltke’s Theory of War So I was all set to do a full post on strength of schedule. I went to Basketball Reference and downloaded every game played last season. I made a table of last years schedule (click to enlarge). I worked out the raw… [Read more…]
October 19, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Jake Taylor: I play for the Indians. Chaire Holloway: Here in Cleveland? I didn’t know they still had a team! Jake Taylor: Yup, we’ve got uniforms and everything, it’s really great! -Major League The opening quote is from one of my favorite movies. For those who are not familiar with it it’s a movie about… [Read more…]
October 19, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“The most dangerous kind of waste is the waste we do not recognize.” – Shigeo Shingo Muda is the Japanese word for something that is wasteful, doesn’t add value or is unproductive. The reduction of waste is one of the central ideas of the Toyota Production System (which in the west is called lean manufacturing)… [Read more…]
October 18, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
I love over/under columns. They’re always great fun to read and they give us an opportunity to gauge the value of the insight being provided by the author. Does he truly have something with his process of evaluation or does he need to go back to the drawing board? You may be aware that I’ve… [Read more…]
October 16, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
I discovered a great site over the week. It’s called dougstats . The greatness of the site is in that the owner does the public service of collecting real-time stats for the nba and mlb for use and recreation. What attracted me was that he was collecting pre-season stats for the NBA and… [Read more…]
October 15, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?- Yeats “The Second Coming” A month has past since I did my first pre-season projection for the coming NBA season (NBA Now Team Rankings take… [Read more…]
October 13, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
A few weeks ago, I came up with the Championship Equation which set out to establish the necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for building a championship team. The intent was to have an edge in quickly identifying and separating the title favorites, the contenders and the pretenders. I then revised it based on reader feedback. … [Read more…]
October 12, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Whereof what’s past is prologue; what to come, In yours and my discharge. -The Tempest There’s a very good reason that I spent the past few days posting and diccussing a model t project rookie performance. I want to use the Wins Produced model to project future player productivity based on past performance. I want… [Read more…]
October 11, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Reader Shawn Ryan asks: OK, last comment, I swear. It looks like you didn’t look at undrafted players. I’d be curious to know if you found anything for players like Jeremy Lin, Omar Samhan, Artsiom Parakhouski, Brian Zoubek, Aubrey Coleman, and Tyler Smith. So I had some time and decided to do a quick post.Are… [Read more…]
October 11, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair. -C. S. Lewis So here we come to the final part of my rookie model build for… [Read more…]
October 10, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Readers familiar to this blog know that I’ve been working on a model to predict success in the NBA using the Wins Produced metric (See the Basics here and the development version here). This is one of the goals of this blog, it’s mission statement. Build the model, test it out, get feedback, improve it,… [Read more…]
October 8, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Readers familiar to this blog know that I’ve been working on a model to predict success in the NBA using the Wins Produced metric (See the Basics here). In a sense, it’s the mission statement of this blog. The intent is to shake out the tools and build a model piece by pace, put it… [Read more…]
October 7, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Once in a while, I like to take a look at incoming links for the site and go off to visit far away forums to see what they’re saying about what I write. This can be a very rewarding and frustrating experience. Rewarding in that you get to see what the great zeitgeist… [Read more…]
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October 31, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
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