Browsing All Posts published on »October, 2010«

A Small Sample Size look at the NBA in 2010-2011 (so Far)

October 31, 2010 by


Before we get our first look at the Automated Wins Produced site for 2010-2011, I decided that I was going to work out all the Wins Produced numbers (the Basics are here) for the season so far. I will caution that all these numbers are preliminary (the position adjustment is estimated) and from a very […]

Gimme the Rock Part 3- The Shooter’s dilemma

October 31, 2010 by


Saavik: Permission to speak freely, sir? Kirk: Granted. Saavik: I do not believe this was a fair test of my command abilities. Kirk: And why not? Saavik: Because… there was no way to win. Kirk: A no-win situation is a possibility every commander may face. Has that never occurred to you? Saavik: No, sir, it […]

Gimme the Rock Part 2- The Nash Equilibrium

October 30, 2010 by


“See, there were these two guys in a lunatic asylum… and one night, one night they decide they don’t like living in an asylum any more. They decide they’re going to escape! So, like, they get up onto the roof, and there, just across this narrow gap, they see the rooftops of the town, stretching […]

Around the WOW week 1

October 29, 2010 by


Since this space seems to be getting some eyeballs, I’ve decided that I’m going to add a weekly feature where I point you to some of the awesome work going on around the Wages of Wins Network. So without further ado, WOW links of the week: First off is Ty Willihnganz at Courtside Analysist. I […]

Give me the rock Part 1: The Paradox of Melo

October 28, 2010 by


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.  ~Albert Einstein A while back, I gave you, my readers,  homework with the implicit understanding that there would be a reckoning. A reckoning that takes the form of my next series. Hopefully, it’ll live up to it’s predecessors. So get ready, because here comes the […]

The Build Final (Final Pre-season Predictions now with Corrections)

October 28, 2010 by


Anyone can err, but only the fool persists in his fault — Marcus Tullius Cicero, Philippica XII, ii, 5 So reader sportsfanatic613 points out: I love this work. Thank you so much. Currently, my question is why Nene (Hilario) does not seem to be included on the Denver Nuggets roster. I didn’t think that he […]

Comparing NBA Predictions across the web

October 27, 2010 by


Yesterday I posted the final Preseason Model and it was awesome. (If you’re new or got here while searching for kittens go here for the Basics behind it all). Then Andrez Alvarez asked me to post the league projection as a poster and that was even more awesome. Then reader Rashad asked: Any chance you […]

Every Player in the NBA projected for 2010-2011 as a pretty picture

October 26, 2010 by


So, friend of the blog, Andrez Alvarez asks: Your entire player ranking thing is too cool. I feel it was hidden in your article. IMO that could be it’s own post. Done and done. Enjoy. Note: I updated this to make it more readable and sorted by final minute projections. Click to see full size.

2011 NBA Now Rankings and Predictions (Final Preseason Build)

October 26, 2010 by


“. . . be resolved that duty is heavier than a mountain, while death is lighter than a feather.”—First Precept of the Imperial Rescript to Japanese Soldiers and Sailors Duty. That’s a heavy, heavy word. I made a promise to myself and to readers of this blog that I would build a model to forecast […]

Short Update

October 26, 2010 by


So the model for every player is finished. Checking all the minute projections for depth and injuries. Predicition coming tomorrow. Here’s the top 30 projected by WP48 for the Year : And here’s a cool comic that reminded me of one of my old jobs:

The Nail (A Miami Heat Preview)

October 25, 2010 by


For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; For want of a shoe, the horse was lost; For want of a horse, the rider was lost; For want of a rider, the battle was lost; For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail. -Proverb […]

Rookie Numbers in the Pre-season

October 24, 2010 by


So, I’ve been working on the model, a team review and my next series all day and I haven’t had the time to pull a full post together. I did throw together a nice table on preseason numbers for rookies and I thought people might get a kick out of it: If I look at […]

Final Preseason numbers & Caturday

October 23, 2010 by


Kittens. I noticed something strange yesterday when looking at the site stats. See here: So people are winding up at my homepage while looking for cute kitty pictures. Longtime readers know where all about the fanservice, so welcome and here goes: And getting back somewhat on topic: Now getting back to basketball, Here are the […]

Bonus Post: Recommended Reads and a Sneek Peek

October 23, 2010 by


A lot of posts this week. More coming tomorrow. I wanted to throw something short up with some recommended reading on inefficiency: First go read this bit of an attempt at analysis: How can Carmelo Possibly be inefficient? Then read Nerdnumbers (Andres Alvarez) response: Staying on topic, read’s Ty at Courtside Analyst’s take on […]

A Different League

October 22, 2010 by


In the comments in my previous post, reader & commenter extraordinaire some dude (who’s a Lakers fan but we forgive him) wrote: Kings, Clips, W’s all got better in the west IMO. Only team above NOH that definitely got worse is Phx. I maintain Houston is better now that Yao is back, though your model […]

The Big Easy

October 21, 2010 by


“The Mardi Gras memories Of creole tunes that filled the air I dream of oleanders in June And soon I’m wishing that I was there” -Do You Know What It Means to Miss New Orleans A cross cultural melting pot with awesome food. A Colonial city with old world charm and kicking music. It’s no […]

The Best Available Free Agents and an update to the Preseason WP

October 21, 2010 by


So I’m working on a lengthy analysis at work, a team review for Professor Berri (think freedom) and my next (and hopefully great) series (Andres already got a preview). So a short post for today. First the best available Free Agents (yes , I know some of these guys are retired):   Dampier and Fazekas […]

Does the Schedule matter and Preseason Wins Produced as of 10/19/2010

October 20, 2010 by


No plan of action survives first contact with the enemy-Moltke’s Theory of War So I was all set to do a full post on strength of schedule. I went to Basketball Reference and downloaded every game played last season. I made a table of last years schedule (click to enlarge). I worked out the raw […]

Major League (A Cleveland Cavaliers Team Preview)

October 19, 2010 by


Jake Taylor: I play for the Indians. Chaire Holloway: Here in Cleveland? I didn’t know they still had a team! Jake Taylor: Yup, we’ve got uniforms and everything, it’s really great! -Major League The opening quote is from one of my favorite movies. For those who are not familiar with it it’s a movie about […]

The Least Valuable players

October 19, 2010 by


“The most dangerous kind of waste is the waste we do not recognize.” – Shigeo Shingo Muda is the Japanese word for something  that is wasteful, doesn’t add value or is unproductive. The reduction of waste is one of the central ideas of the Toyota Production System (which in the west is called lean manufacturing) […]

NBA Team Win predictions as of now vs the Lines

October 18, 2010 by


I love over/under columns.  They’re always great fun to read and they give us an opportunity to gauge the value of the insight being provided by the author. Does he truly have something with his process of evaluation or does he need to go back to the drawing board? You may be aware that I’ve […]

Does the Preseason tell us anything?

October 16, 2010 by


I discovered a great site over the week. It’s called dougstats . The greatness of the site is in that the owner does the public service of collecting real-time stats for the nba and mlb for use and recreation.     What attracted me was that he was collecting pre-season stats for the NBA and […]

2011 NBA Now Rankings 2.0 (Final Pre-season Build) Part 2 The Build 2011 v1 and The Best Team in the NBA?

October 15, 2010 by


That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?- Yeats “The Second Coming” A month has past since I did my first pre-season projection for the coming NBA season (NBA Now Team Rankings take […]

2011 NBA Now Rankings 2.0 (Final Pre-season Build) Part I Projecting Stars and Superstars (Revised)

October 13, 2010 by


A few weeks ago, I came up with the Championship Equation which set out to establish the necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for building a championship team. The intent was to have an edge in quickly identifying and separating the title favorites, the contenders and the pretenders.  I then revised it based on reader feedback.  […]

Projecting NBA Player Productivity based on Past Performance v1.0

October 12, 2010 by


Whereof what’s past is prologue; what to come, In yours and my discharge. -The Tempest There’s a very good reason that I spent the past few days posting and diccussing  a model t project rookie performance. I want to use the Wins Produced model to project future player productivity based on past performance. I  want […]

Fanservice: The undrafted

October 11, 2010 by


Reader Shawn Ryan asks: OK, last comment, I swear. It looks like you didn’t look at undrafted players. I’d be curious to know if you found anything for players like Jeremy Lin, Omar Samhan, Artsiom Parakhouski, Brian Zoubek, Aubrey Coleman, and Tyler Smith. So I had some time and decided to do a quick post.Are […]

Prove me wrong,Rook (Finale): Projecting the 2010 Rookies

October 11, 2010 by


If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair. -C. S. Lewis So here we come to the final part of my rookie model build for […]

Prove me wrong, Rook (Part 2)

October 10, 2010 by


Readers familiar to this blog know that I’ve been working on a model to predict success in the NBA using the Wins Produced metric (See the Basics here and the development version here).  This is one of the goals of this blog,  it’s mission statement. Build the model, test it out, get feedback,  improve it, […]

Prove me wrong, Rook Part 1

October 8, 2010 by


Readers familiar to this blog know that I’ve been working on a model to predict success in the NBA using the Wins Produced metric (See the Basics here). In a sense, it’s the mission statement of this blog. The intent is to shake out the tools and build a model piece by pace, put it […]

Bobo the Monkey

October 7, 2010 by


Once in a while, I like to take a look at incoming links for the site and go off to visit far away forums to see what they’re saying about what I write.     This can be a very rewarding and frustrating experience. Rewarding in that you get to see what the great zeitgeist […]


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