A long time ago, in a time known colloquially as August, this blogger used to write an NBA free agent update. Given that I was feeling nostalgic after watching some 30 for 30 last night (“Jordan rides the Bus”), I decided to go back to that better, less math intensive time (you know what I mean) and update the Free Agent Guide (also I really had to do this before doing the Celtics and Lakers playoff review).
This took place more than 19 Years Ago. Is that Nostalgia or disbelief?
So here it is : The return of the table that wouldn’t die, the 2010 NBA free agent update.
Rev 6,7? Who knows, I lost count and much like Jason you know it'll be back
As was done last time,with two scorecards:
- The first (winners and losers) rates the summer FA activity for the Team (no trades,that will come later). So if your team had a bad ETO that stayed on the cap your had a bad summer (right Philly).
- The second is the automated scorecard, where we take out the ETOs and the player options. Two scorecards are double the fun.
And with two sets of evaluations:
- The first is my passionate perspective
- The second is a straightforward & systemic analysis of the numbers (an automated scorecard).
The updated Free Agent Guide is here. As before, the first table includes all player options, restricted and unrestricted free agents and all players with ridiculous ETO’s that did not exercise (like Jason Kapono). The second is all about voluntary decisions and dispassionate logic.
Logic
Updated Winners & Losers
Here’s my quick table on winners and losers. Top 10 in green, next ten in yellow and everyone else in red :
My Quick Thoughts & Grades by Team (the heart’s part) :
The order for the teams is based on the value over market.
- Miami: Since my first review their roster actually improved. 14 players for about $76 million per year that netted an average of 78 wins per year for the last three years. Again, wow,just wow. The haters really need to recognize. Rememeber Lebron is taking mental notes. My Grade: Eleventy
Did I just make the list?
- Chicago: The Bulls did not get exactly what they wanted but they still massively upgraded. Chicago went four out of six (Korver is marginal). 6 players for about $32 million per year that netted an average of 32 wins per year for the last three years. Sadly it looks like they might screw it up by going for Noah for Melo making Chicago Tim sad and Andres very happy. My Grade: B- for even considering a Melo deal
- Detroit: Detroit kept Ben Wallace and four of their current players. They may add T-mac cheap. That’s real forward looking. 5 players for about $10.5 million per year that netted an average of 17 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B for good value but not enough
- Boston: Moving on up in the world. The Delonte West signing is inspired.I heart Pierce & Allen but they sure are creaky but Allen should get some rest from the West signing. Love me some pocket kryptonite. Jermaine O’Neal? They’re gambling on him being productive as PF I think but it’s a gamble. The Rondo deal (again not counted in the total as it happened in-season) & Shaq at the veteran Minimum adds to the positive. The thought here I think is that Boston with this bunch should be able to find six good to great players on their roster come playoff to match up to the Heat. 7 players for about $40.2 million per year that netted an average of 31 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B for Gambling in Beantown.
- Phoenix: Classic Suns pantsing the league on Childress and cutting payroll. Adding Warrick as well more than replaces the value lost when Amare left. The only reason I withhold an A is Frye. Looking at their roster they may not be done yet. 4 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 19 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B+ for now
- Golden State : A forum on whether or not you like David Lee. Dorell Wright is good. Pargo is very,very,very,very bad . 4 players for about $19.2 million per year that netted an average of 18 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B-, no selection bias here but really Pargo?!?!?
- Orlando: The Magic keep bringing in average (.100 WP48 players). Great for the regular season not so much for the playoff. 4 players for about $13.6 million per year that netted an average of 15 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for not doing enough to win a title
- Lakers: As a Celtics fan, #$#%% #@%@@!!!! And they stole a guy in the 2nd round of the draft (Caracter who they just signed @#@$@@@@$@#!!!$!$!%%@^@^). The Kobe deal (not included on the list as it happened in-season) could be the turd in the punch bowl in the future. The Shannon Brown deal is a rare misstep this off-season. 5 players for about $13 million per year that netted an average of 13 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A- but here’s a to Kobe’s offseason for Laker fans enjoy
- Houston: Better than it looks. Yao re-upping for one year is worth a hundred million easy to that franchise. 6 players for about $47 million per year that netted an average of 33 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A- (I’d forgotten Jared Jeffries came with two Knick #1′s)
- Portland: Matthews is good but they need minutes for him. 2 players for about $14 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: Incomplete pending whatever trade they make.
- Cleveland :Pretty much no one is walking through that door. Blow it up and build through the draft. 2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: E for bad times on Lake Erie
- Gee Dan, I wonder why no one wants to come play for us?
- Knicks: New York deserves and will get their own post. I will say that by breaking even they lapped the regime of Lord Thomas. They were doing so well and then they went to a past best left forgotten. 4 players for about $30 million per year that netted an average of 19 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D- (C for the moves, -15 for Isiah, they passed but barely.) Go here for the full review
- Washington : Same as Cleveland,pretty much no one is walking through that door. Dan Gilbert take note, this team has already blown it up and is building through the draft. 1 players for about $4 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B because the first step is to accept that we are powerless
- Toronto:Meh. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D for doubt they’ll make the playoffs
- San Antonio: Love the Splitter deal at a minimum it gives them flexibility and saves Duncan for the playoffs at a maximum it sets them up for a dogfight with OKC and the Lakers for the West crown for the next few years. Don’t like the Jefferson deal.3 players for about $17 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B for split returns
- Clippers : A lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. 4 players for about $11.6 million per year that netted an average of 6 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for same old Clippers
- Utah : Didn’t this team move to Chicago? 2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: F for abseentism
- OKC : Not a lot done. Presti thinks he has a good hand. Flipped players for picks.1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: We will C about Cole
- Pacers : Actually Larry legend is about to turn this around . TJ Ford looks gone and Collison and Posey are is a good pickups (and just for the hell of it, Larry Bird is the greatest player ever) . 1 players for about $8.5 million per year that netted an average of 4 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: L for The legend moves in mysterious ways.
- You were expecting an excuse to post this?
- Kings : Anytime you can bring in a defensive stopper from one of the worst defensive teams in the league you gotta do it right? 1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of -1 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: MalooF
- Charlotte: Sneaky. Young above average PF on the cheap (Thomas). Could be good but they need to start him. Shaun Livingston gives them an A for me. Kwame for the minimum is a good deal. 3 players for about $18 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A for Air
- Nets: Throwing some good money after bad. They’re getting a new GM though 7 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 12 wins per year for the last three years.My Grade: C- comrade
- Minnesota:KHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3 players for about $10 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. Grade: F+ (See it’s a little better). I was going to put a Free Love image up but let’s keep it PG
- Atlanta : Question, what Free Agent contracts were signed that were immediately untradeable? Answer: Joe Johnson & Rudy Gay. 3 players for about $23 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years. Grade: Z for Zombie franchise killer contracts.
- Denver: Meh again. 4 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: D
- Dallas: Cuban seem to delight at paying full price on day old cheese. Yes it tastes good now but pretty they’re past the expiration date. Cuban needs that Time Machine. 5 players for about $45.1 million per year that netted an average of 21 wins per year for the last three years. Grade: D for Dirk is Dissapoint
- Memphis: At least Atlanta got some wins out of the deal. 2 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. Grade: Omega
- Milwakee: Sneaky. Makes a good team, slightly better and deeper. Fell some Anxiety about the Deer! The Redd contract is the unavoidable turd in the punch bowl. 5 players for about $35 million per year that netted an average of 12 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D+ for the Deer but fear not they’ll do better later
- 76ers : The Sixers payed good money to get worse. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of -4 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: Divide by zero
- Hornets: Did you know the Saints won the Super Bowl? 3 players for about $22 million per year that netted an average of 2 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: H for Hopeless Hornets (see here for my take on trade,let me just warn you the Hornets do poorly)
Who Dey
Automated Scorecard (with clear eyes):
Now we come to the automated scorecard. Here I’m letting the numbers do the talking. I ‘m looking at net wins acquired and how much was paid per win. I am only looking at voluntary decisions by team management (i.e no ETO’s or Player Options). I am normalizing for wins & paid (while treating Miami as an outlier (or the grades get ridiculous)) and adding the scores. I then rank the teams by score and use percentile to score them. The automated rankings look like this:
And the differences look like this:
Miami remains numbers one but Houston steals number two (and if someone can convince Scola he’s playing for Argentina in Houston ,watch out!). The numbers & stats love Cuban (which is totally unsurprising and fitting) & Morey to a lesser extent. The other big gainers are Denver (to the middle of the pack), and the Deer to number 18. As for who were the the big losers? Utah and Indians make perfect sense as the big droppers (abstaining and paying for nothing are not popular). Portland however is due to excel being confused by Wesley Matthews and this potential thing.
I hope that this post makes everyone happy and nostalgic . This is an early post as I thought I’d check if there’s any sports on my TV tonight .
Note: Official Assistant GM of this Blog, Devin pointed out some mistakes that I’ve now corrected.Good job Devin. Feel free to name a post you’d like to see.
Mike
09/09/2010
Arturo,
It seems that the Pargo “signing” was a rumor. It was rumored a while ago and no one from the organization has confirmed it. There had been no press release of the signing. Compare that with their recent signing of Rodney Carney, immediate press release and he already got a jersey number. I think it’s safe to say that the Warriors did not sign Pargo. Carney is not good, but he’s no Pargo (at least he has a positive WP48). The terms for Carney were not disclosed, but I’m sure it’ll surface within the next new days.
arturogalletti
09/09/2010
Mike,
Yahoo and Hoopshype both list him as a Warrior. Sorry about that.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3660
I think the lack of a press release is just shame.
Mike
09/10/2010
I was scared for a moment there, but after checking out the Roster on the official Warriors website, I’m more confident that Pargo was not signed:
http://www.nba.com/warriors/roster/index.html
Note that Rodney Carney is already listed there as an official Warrior, whereas Pargo is nowhere to be found. I think that Hoopshype and Yahoo! jumped the gun (and I had a near heart attack) when the Pargo story “broke” and just never updated since.
arturogalletti
09/10/2010
Mike,
I hope for their sake that you’re right. For the next one i’m willing to take him off.
Spider Jerusalem
09/11/2010
Yeah, it was put on hold about a month ago:
http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/68691/20100814/warriors_put_pargo_deal_on_ice_waiting_for_other_options/
arturogalletti
09/11/2010
I’ll take him off the next update.
Evanz
09/13/2010
make sure to add Amundson…nice pickup, eh?
arturogalletti
09/13/2010
Will do. That’s a nice pickup. Particularly if they play him at the 3 as well as the 4.
Devin
09/09/2010
Arturo, you’ve got Indiana in the Automated Scorecard twice – once with one signing, and once with no signings (hence it being an outlier). Just a case of forgetting to remove outdated info, I think.
arturogalletti
09/09/2010
Devin,
Thanks.Fixed. Feel free to claim your no-prize and name your post.
Devin
09/12/2010
My no-prize is a “name your post”? Like…come up with a post idea for you to write about? Or come up with the title of a post? If it’s the latter, here is my title:
“Arturo Sexy Large Stats: Arturo For President (of Basketball Operations)”
arturogalletti
09/12/2010
The No-prize is actually number one. Name a topic or a title and I will do my best to produce a post.
As for the second,you think i’d like Toronto? Raptors fans would be cool to GM for and by all accounts, Toronto’s a cool city but it might be a tad chilly for a boy from the tropics
Devin
09/13/2010
Cool. I’ll try and come up with one.
If you like the big city, Toronto’s cool. I always like visiting, and I grew up within an hours drive. There are plenty of suburbs and smaller towns around that people commute from as well, so if you aren’t a fan of city life you might be able to get away from it (although the traffic would be a bitch).
Chilly? Only to you DAMN YANKEES. Doesn’t usually get below -10C (and rarely -20C) during the winter, and summers are just as warm as Detroit or New York. Anyone who puts up with New York’s climate shouldn’t find Toronto much different.
And if you somehow got to be GM in Toronto, not only would my team have an awesome GM, but I also wouldn’t have to worry about silly work permits and all that jazz (for that job you promised me)
arturogalletti
09/13/2010
Devin,
Got to remember I was born,raised and live in the tropics (even though I studied and lived up in the mainland for a good long bit). Winter to me is 20 degrees C. Below is a picture of a place that I go for walks on the weekend with my wife.
The job is guaranteed (assuming I get mine first
)
Devin
09/13/2010
I forgot you are down in Puerto Rico…not fair. I just read that your lowest recorded temperature was 4C. At least I’m out in Victoria, BC right now and no longer experience snow very often (last winter was essentially snow-free).
I’ve got some ideas for you…some might not be do-able. I’d like to keep everything a secret, but I don’t have your email, so send me an email at devin.dignam@gmail.com!
Chicago Tim
09/10/2010
Whew! Apparently rumors of a Noah-for-Anthony trade were overblown, or else someone had second thoughts.
“Before you expend too much brain power trying to figure out whether the Bulls would really part with Joakim Noah in a trade for Carmelo Anthony, be advised that the Bulls are actually working on something else Noah-related: Getting him locked in for the long term with a contract extension.
“The sides have been negotiating quietly for weeks and sources close to the process say that sufficient progress has been made — although no deal is imminent — to all but guarantee that terms on a five-year extension will be reached before the Halloween deadline.
“Noah is determined to stay in Chicago, one source assures, while the Bulls continue to send clear signals that they have no interest in parting with their center. Not even for someone of Anthony’s pedigree, as one source told ESPNChicago.com’s Nick Friedell.”
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/19807/melo-noah-swap-talk-premature
arturogalletti
09/10/2010
Tim,
But you were scared there for a minute when it was running across the ESPN ticker
Chicago Tim
09/12/2010
Very scared.
sportsfanatic613
09/14/2010
Maybe, I missed a post so I apologize if this is the case. My issue relates to the Milwaukee Bucks and them being penalized because Michael Redd of course picked up his player option for over $18 million this year. If the grades that the teams are receiving are for the free agents that they signed, how can the Bucks be penalized as Redd simply picked up his option and never became a free agent?
arturogalletti
09/14/2010
The first scorecard includes all free agent transaction including player options. The second only includes voluntary decisions by the team.