## Tweaking the Championship Equation,2011 Contenders rev1.1 and Young Stars

September 30, 2010 by

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Yesterday, I came up with the Championship Equation: Win 52 or more games (Houston is an aberration that can be explained in one word: Hakeem) Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) Do this and win the title. It was good.It wasn’t perfect . Therefore,today, I want […]

## The Championship Equation and the 2011 Contenders rev1

September 29, 2010 by

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Over the past months, I’ve written many a piece about the NBA playoffs and how to build a championship team. As a result of this, a curious thing has occurred. In my mind, an equation formed of what it takes to win a championship in the NBA and this equation permeated my work. The existence […]

## A mission from God (The Bulls 2011 Team Preview)

September 28, 2010 by

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Elwood: It’s 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it’s dark, and we’re wearing sunglasses. Jake : Hit it. -The Blues Brothers The Plot One of the great things about how the NBA off-season has played out this year is that the 2010-11 NBA Season comes […]

## 30 to 16 to 1: (End of the road:The LA Lakers) 6 for 24 and why size does matter

September 27, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

## Build me a winner rev. 2

September 25, 2010 by

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“Where there is no Standard there can be no Kaizen (improvement)” - Taiichi Ohno One of my defining traits as a person is that when exposed to something long enough I can’t help but break it down, analyze it and look for ways to improve it. I am a apostle of Lean manufacturing which wikipedia […]

## Half-Baked Outliers

September 24, 2010 by

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An outlier is an observation that is different from the rest of a data set. An outlier is an exception to a rule. Typically, in statistics we look for outliers either to protect from their effect where their presence does not indicate false conclusions but rather noise to be discounted or to identify where our basic […]

## The Good, The Bad & the Ugly (featuring the Denver Nuggets)

September 23, 2010 by

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Recently , ESPN has been running a feature in which they have the fans pick the best players for each NBA team and then run a playoff for the teams picked (which sounds suspiciously  more than a bit like the Time Travel Playoffs, Andres Alvarez ran in his blog, take a bow Andres). As part […]

## Fanservice: Win Probabilities for Every Scenario/Format in a Seven Game Series

September 22, 2010 by

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I know, I know, you’re probably saying to yourself: another piece on seven game series and win probabilities, what’s wrong with this guy. I’m well aware that this is my fifth piece on the subject(see here, here, here and here). I know I should be working on the rookie model and the next version of […]

## Homecourt Advantage in a seven game series

September 21, 2010 by

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Previously, I wrote a series of pieces on how to build a probability model for a seven game playoff series using the Binomial theorem (see here, here and here). The basics of the model are below in table form: Now this is a little complicated but we can all understand a simple table. As before […]

## The Draft,The Draft,The Draft………

September 20, 2010 by

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Fractals are created by the repetition of geometric patterns via a process of iteration. Because they look similar at any zoom level, fractals are often considered to be infinitely complex. Multiple objects in nature are approximated by fractals (clouds, mountain ranges, lightning bolts, Troy Polamanu’s hair). So it’s no surprise that some of our analysis […]

## A Sunday Kind of Piece: Return of The Draft

September 19, 2010 by

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“You sure have changed since yesterday Without any warning I thought I knew you I thought I knew you I thought I knew you well… so well” -Sunday Morning  No Doubt Sunday kind of piece time. You know the drill. I throw some numbers together add a few charts, hard to read tables and funny […]

## 30 to 16 to 1: (Part 13)The Celtics and The Big One

September 17, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

## NBA Now Rankings for 2010-2011 Take 1 (The 2010-11 Build v 0.1)

September 16, 2010 by

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I love twitter. It’s a window into the mind  of some very creative/Talented/interesting  people. It’s a constant source of amusement and inspiration. Now yesterday I was looking around for my muse (damn thing had gotten lost again) and I came upon the following tweet: DannyLeroux @chadfordinsider I would LOVE to see a “strong argument” that […]

## Revisiting the 2007 NBA draft

September 15, 2010 by

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Note: Before we start some basics for new readers . Here a guide to commonly used terms on this blog from Devin at the NBeh? blog . Here’s a Guide to Calculating Wins Produced from Wages of Wins. For some explanation on PAWS40 go here. Recently I’ve come across a few pieces on Jeff Ma’s  […]

## The Beginning of Wisdom (Washington Wizards Take 2)

September 14, 2010 by

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“The only real wisdom is knowing you know nothing” -Socrates One of the fun things about having a blog is that I get to make strong statements about the opinions I form through analysis. A question or an idea comes into my mind and I go off to take a look at the data and […]

## Could the Wizards in 2011 be the Worst NBA Team of all time?

September 12, 2010 by

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Note: Before we start some basics for new readers . Here a guide to commonly used terms on this blog from Devin at the NBeh? blog . Here’s a Guide to Calculating Wins Produced from Wages of Wins. Bienvenidos a mi blog. Note 2: Never submit a post at 1:30 am. I’ve heavily proofed this […]

## Four Leaf Clovers and Joakim Noah

September 11, 2010 by

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“Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel Was just a freight train coming your way”-Metallica- No Leaf Clover Chicago Bulls fans had to be feeling good this NBA off-season. They had good young players at the most critical positions (PG and Center). They didn’t quite hit their […]

## Return of the NBA Free Agent Guide

September 9, 2010 by

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A long time ago, in a time known colloquially as August, this blogger used  to write an NBA free agent update. Given that I was feeling nostalgic after watching some 30 for 30 last night (“Jordan rides the Bus”),  I decided to go back to that better, less math intensive time (you know what I […]

## The Seven Game Series Model in Table Form

September 8, 2010 by

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Over Labor day weekend, I took it upon myself to build a probability model for a seven game playoff series using the Binomial theorem (see here and here). I’ve been told the math  made peoples eye’s bleed so I’m going to try to simplify it for your enjoyment. The basics of the model are below(warning […]

## Mirror Universe Time Machine take 1

September 7, 2010 by

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My Wages of Wins network colleague Andres Alvarez has been doing a super fun series called Time Machine Teams. In it, Andres takes a team’s roster from a given year and allow the team to use the best season from any player’s career.  As you may have heard ( here and here), I did some […]

## A Sunday Kind of Piece (Special Labor Day Edition Parte Dos): Building Probability Models for the NBA Playoffs

September 6, 2010 by

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Peter Gibbons: So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s on the worst day of my life. Dr. Swanson: What about […]

## A Sunday Kind of Piece (Special Labor Day Edition): Building Probability Models for the NBA Playoffs

September 6, 2010 by

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Steve: I lied. Um… All that stuff I said about being a crack head? It just helps me sell magazines. I’m actually an unemployed… software engineer. Peter Gibbons : You’re a software engineer? Steve : Yup. [sighs] Samir : Things, uh… it must be very rough for you. Steve : Actually man, I make more […]

## Top 30 most improved Playoff Lineups

September 5, 2010 by

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Yesterday’s Post today. Reader Alex ask in thursday’s post (A Half Baked Predictive Look at the 2010 NBA Playoffs): “Hey Arturo – Pretty cool. It looks like Boston was pretty unusual in that their top 6 guys (by minutes) in the regular season weren’t even the guys they played in the playoffs, since they went […]

## Send in the Clones! (of the best players ever)

September 3, 2010 by

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I was all set with today’s post and then I read Prof. Berri’s piece for the day (see here). The piece poses the question: “Who would win, five prime Dennis Rodmans vs. five prime Kobe Bryants?” Dave answered: “As for Rodman vs. Kobe… people often argue that a team of Rodmans (or a team of […]

## A Half Baked Predictive Look at the 2010 NBA Playoffs

September 2, 2010 by

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So I read a good piece today on the Sports Skeptic blog (see here) that took a look at my half baked notion about the difference between the regular season and the NBA playoffs (see here).  The key question of the piece is this: Would you rather have a top-heavy team or a deep team? […]

## Build me a winner rev. 1.1 now with the Salary Cheat Sheet

September 1, 2010 by

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As previously stated this will be a work in progress and I will be making additions as needed. Complicating things is that Hurricane Earl knocked out my home internet so updates will happen during the day. Here’s take 1.1 of the Build me winner algorithm. “All right, what do we think? What do we know? […]