Yesterday, I came up with the Championship Equation: Win 52 or more games (Houston is an aberration that can be explained in one word: Hakeem) Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) Do this and win the title. It was good.It wasn’t perfect . Therefore,today, I want… [Read more…]
September 29, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Over the past months, I’ve written many a piece about the NBA playoffs and how to build a championship team. As a result of this, a curious thing has occurred. In my mind, an equation formed of what it takes to win a championship in the NBA and this equation permeated my work. The existence… [Read more…]
September 28, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Elwood: It’s 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it’s dark, and we’re wearing sunglasses. Jake : Hit it. -The Blues Brothers The Plot One of the great things about how the NBA off-season has played out this year is that the 2010-11 NBA Season comes… [Read more…]
September 27, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff… [Read more…]
September 25, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“Where there is no Standard there can be no Kaizen (improvement)” - Taiichi Ohno One of my defining traits as a person is that when exposed to something long enough I can’t help but break it down, analyze it and look for ways to improve it. I am a apostle of Lean manufacturing which wikipedia… [Read more…]
September 24, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
An outlier is an observation that is different from the rest of a data set. An outlier is an exception to a rule. Typically, in statistics we look for outliers either to protect from their effect where their presence does not indicate false conclusions but rather noise to be discounted or to identify where our basic… [Read more…]
September 23, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Recently , ESPN has been running a feature in which they have the fans pick the best players for each NBA team and then run a playoff for the teams picked (which sounds suspiciously more than a bit like the Time Travel Playoffs, Andres Alvarez ran in his blog, take a bow Andres). As part… [Read more…]
September 22, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
I know, I know, you’re probably saying to yourself: another piece on seven game series and win probabilities, what’s wrong with this guy. I’m well aware that this is my fifth piece on the subject(see here, here, here and here). I know I should be working on the rookie model and the next version of… [Read more…]
September 21, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Previously, I wrote a series of pieces on how to build a probability model for a seven game playoff series using the Binomial theorem (see here, here and here). The basics of the model are below in table form: Now this is a little complicated but we can all understand a simple table. As before… [Read more…]
September 20, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Fractals are created by the repetition of geometric patterns via a process of iteration. Because they look similar at any zoom level, fractals are often considered to be infinitely complex. Multiple objects in nature are approximated by fractals (clouds, mountain ranges, lightning bolts, Troy Polamanu’s hair). So it’s no surprise that some of our analysis… [Read more…]
September 19, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“You sure have changed since yesterday Without any warning I thought I knew you I thought I knew you I thought I knew you well… so well” -Sunday Morning No Doubt Sunday kind of piece time. You know the drill. I throw some numbers together add a few charts, hard to read tables and funny… [Read more…]
September 17, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff… [Read more…]
September 16, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
I love twitter. It’s a window into the mind of some very creative/Talented/interesting people. It’s a constant source of amusement and inspiration. Now yesterday I was looking around for my muse (damn thing had gotten lost again) and I came upon the following tweet: DannyLeroux @chadfordinsider I would LOVE to see a “strong argument” that… [Read more…]
September 15, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Note: Before we start some basics for new readers . Here a guide to commonly used terms on this blog from Devin at the NBeh? blog . Here’s a Guide to Calculating Wins Produced from Wages of Wins. For some explanation on PAWS40 go here. Recently I’ve come across a few pieces on Jeff Ma’s … [Read more…]
September 14, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“The only real wisdom is knowing you know nothing” -Socrates One of the fun things about having a blog is that I get to make strong statements about the opinions I form through analysis. A question or an idea comes into my mind and I go off to take a look at the data and… [Read more…]
September 12, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Note: Before we start some basics for new readers . Here a guide to commonly used terms on this blog from Devin at the NBeh? blog . Here’s a Guide to Calculating Wins Produced from Wages of Wins. Bienvenidos a mi blog. Note 2: Never submit a post at 1:30 am. I’ve heavily proofed this… [Read more…]
September 11, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
“Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel Was just a freight train coming your way”-Metallica- No Leaf Clover Chicago Bulls fans had to be feeling good this NBA off-season. They had good young players at the most critical positions (PG and Center). They didn’t quite hit their… [Read more…]
September 9, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
A long time ago, in a time known colloquially as August, this blogger used to write an NBA free agent update. Given that I was feeling nostalgic after watching some 30 for 30 last night (“Jordan rides the Bus”), I decided to go back to that better, less math intensive time (you know what I… [Read more…]
September 8, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Over Labor day weekend, I took it upon myself to build a probability model for a seven game playoff series using the Binomial theorem (see here and here). I’ve been told the math made peoples eye’s bleed so I’m going to try to simplify it for your enjoyment. The basics of the model are below(warning… [Read more…]
September 7, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
My Wages of Wins network colleague Andres Alvarez has been doing a super fun series called Time Machine Teams. In it, Andres takes a team’s roster from a given year and allow the team to use the best season from any player’s career. As you may have heard ( here and here), I did some… [Read more…]
September 6, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Peter Gibbons: So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s on the worst day of my life. Dr. Swanson: What about… [Read more…]
September 6, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Steve: I lied. Um… All that stuff I said about being a crack head? It just helps me sell magazines. I’m actually an unemployed… software engineer. Peter Gibbons : You’re a software engineer? Steve : Yup. [sighs] Samir : Things, uh… it must be very rough for you. Steve : Actually man, I make more… [Read more…]
September 5, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
Yesterday’s Post today. Reader Alex ask in thursday’s post (A Half Baked Predictive Look at the 2010 NBA Playoffs): “Hey Arturo – Pretty cool. It looks like Boston was pretty unusual in that their top 6 guys (by minutes) in the regular season weren’t even the guys they played in the playoffs, since they went… [Read more…]
September 3, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
I was all set with today’s post and then I read Prof. Berri’s piece for the day (see here). The piece poses the question: “Who would win, five prime Dennis Rodmans vs. five prime Kobe Bryants?” Dave answered: “As for Rodman vs. Kobe… people often argue that a team of Rodmans (or a team of… [Read more…]
September 2, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
So I read a good piece today on the Sports Skeptic blog (see here) that took a look at my half baked notion about the difference between the regular season and the NBA playoffs (see here). The key question of the piece is this: Would you rather have a top-heavy team or a deep team?… [Read more…]
September 1, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
As previously stated this will be a work in progress and I will be making additions as needed. Complicating things is that Hurricane Earl knocked out my home internet so updates will happen during the day. Here’s take 1.1 of the Build me winner algorithm. “All right, what do we think? What do we know?… [Read more…]
Effort was expended for your enjoyment. Feel free to use it but only if you: share, give credit and don't try to sell it.
September 30, 2010 by Arturo Galletti
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